ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
Tampa vs Tulum: weather in January
Essentially a tie in January: Tampa is 23% clear historically, Tulum is 23% clear (8-year ERA5 average) — within the noise. Avg high 68°F vs 80°F. Pick based on flight time or price, not weather — the weather won't decide this one for you.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
Either destination can still surprise you this specific January. For this
week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.
Tampa
FL
- Clear days, January
- 23%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 68°F
- Early January (1st–15th)
- 25%
- Late January (16th–end)
- 22%
- Rain frequency
- 22% of days
Tulum
MX
- Clear days, January
- 23%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 80°F
- Early January (1st–15th)
- 25%
- Late January (16th–end)
- 21%
Compare Tampa vs Tulum in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.