ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
St. John, USVI vs Tulum: weather in February
Tulum edges out St. John, USVI for sun in February: 23% clear historically versus 13% (8-year ERA5 average, a 10-point gap). Both are viable — Tulum is the safer bet.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
Either destination can still surprise you this specific February. For this
week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.
St. John, USVI
VI
- Clear days, February
- 13%
- Sample size
- n=226 days
- Avg high
- 75°F
- Early February (1st–15th)
- 8%
- Late February (16th–end)
- 18%
- Rain frequency
- 49% of days
Tulum
MX
- Clear days, February
- 23%
- Sample size
- n=226 days
- Avg high
- 81°F
- Early February (1st–15th)
- 21%
- Late February (16th–end)
- 25%
- Rain frequency
- 45% of days
Compare St. John, USVI vs Tulum in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.