ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
St. John, USVI vs Tulum: weather in November
Essentially a tie in November: St. John, USVI is 18% clear historically, Tulum is 20% clear (8-year ERA5 average) — within the noise. Avg high 78°F vs 84°F. Pick based on flight time or price, not weather — the weather won't decide this one for you.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
Either destination can still surprise you this specific November. For this
week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.
St. John, USVI
VI
- Clear days, November
- 18%
- Sample size
- n=240 days
- Avg high
- 78°F
- Early November (1st–15th)
- 12%
- Late November (16th–end)
- 23%
- Rain frequency
- 52% of days
Tulum
MX
- Clear days, November
- 20%
- Sample size
- n=240 days
- Avg high
- 84°F
- Early November (1st–15th)
- 12%
- Late November (16th–end)
- 27%
- Rain frequency
- 52% of days
Compare St. John, USVI vs Tulum in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.