Skip to main content
SunnyDays

ERA5 almanac — 8 years of real data

Tulum in February

Tulum in February: 45% of days see measurable rain, 81°F average high, 23% of days historically clear (n=226, ERA5 2018–2025).

Tulum in February is historically a poor month for sun: only 23% of days clear across 8 years (n=226, avg high 81°F). April is the clearest month for Tulum historically. Historical average, not a forecast.

What you are reading: 8-year historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis, not a forecast. A month that is historically 90% clear can still be overcast on your specific trip. For this week’s actual forecast, see the live Tulum page. Both can be true at once: “historically strong in this month; this particular week is not.” We label which is which.

Early vs. Late February

Clear-sky percentage for Tulum in February, split by half-month. “n” is the number of days sampled across 8 years (2018–2025).
Period % Clear days Sample (n) Avg high
Early February
1st–15th		 21% n=120 81°F
Late February
16th–end		 25% n=106 81°F
Full month average 23% n=226 81°F

Sunshine & warmth in February

A second measure using actual sunshine hours (ERA5 sunshine_duration), not the daily weather code. A Lowcountry day with 12 hours of sun and a 25-minute afternoon storm is counted below as a warm, sunny day — because it was. How we define this.

Sunshine-based metrics for Tulum in February. Primary: % of days ≥ 72°F with > 6 h of sunshine.
Period Warm & sunny (≥72°F, >6 h sun) Sample (n)
Early February
1st–15th		 100% n=120
Late February
16th–end		 98% n=106
Full month average 99% n=226
11.1 h median sunshine per day 98% of days exceed 8 h sunshine 45% of days see ≥ 1 mm rain — rain is not hidden
Comparison (old vs new): WMO-code “clear” bar: 23%. Sunshine-based “warm & sunny”: 99%. The 76-point gap is from brief afternoon convective storms that stamp the whole day as “rain” in the WMO code but leave the bulk of the sunshine untouched.

Bottom line

Tulum is mostly overcast in February historically: only 23% of days are clear across 8 years (n=226), avg high 81°F. If you want sun in Tulum, April is historically much better. Most visitors this month will see more clouds than sun.

→ See all destinations in April — historically the best month for sun in Tulum.

Every month in Tulum

Compare across all months with data. Numbers are historical clear-sky %.

Historical clear-sky % for Tulum, all months, ERA5 2018–2025.
Month % Clear Sample (n)
January 23% n=248 All destinations →
February ← this page 23% n=226 All destinations →
March 28% n=248 All destinations →
April 30% n=240 All destinations →
May 16% n=248 All destinations →
June 6% n=240 All destinations →
July 11% n=248 All destinations →
August 8% n=248 All destinations →
September 4% n=240 All destinations →
October 11% n=248 All destinations →
November 20% n=240 All destinations →
December 21% n=248 All destinations →

Frequently asked

Does it rain in Tulum in February?

Sometimes. Tulum sees measurable rain on 45% of days in February historically (n=226 days, ERA5 2018–2025) — not frequent enough to plan around, but not negligible either.

Is Tulum good for sun in February?

Not usually. Tulum is historically overcast in February: only 23% of days are clear (avg high 81°F, n=226 days, ERA5 2018–2025). April is historically far better for sun here.

How Tulum compares in February

Head-to-head clear-sky comparisons against destinations travelers plausibly weigh against Tulum this month — same passport tier, similar flight distance, both sides from the same 8-year ERA5 record.

All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.