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SunnyDays

ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data

Shenandoah Valley vs St. John, USVI: weather in October

Essentially a tie in October: Shenandoah Valley is 17% clear historically, St. John, USVI is 15% clear (8-year ERA5 average) — within the noise. Avg high 67°F vs 80°F. St. John, USVI also sees measurably more rain than Shenandoah Valley this month (59% vs 23% of days). Pick based on flight time or price, not weather — the weather won't decide this one for you.

What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast. Either destination can still surprise you this specific October. For this week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.

Shenandoah Valley

VA

Clear days, October
17%
Sample size
n=248 days
Avg high
67°F
Early October (1st–15th)
22%
Late October (16th–end)
12%
Rain frequency
23% of days

St. John, USVI

VI

Clear days, October
15%
Sample size
n=248 days
Avg high
80°F
Early October (1st–15th)
18%
Late October (16th–end)
13%
Rain frequency
59% of days

Compare Shenandoah Valley vs St. John, USVI in another month

All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.