ERA5 almanac — 8 years of real data

Shenandoah Valley in October

Shenandoah Valley in October: 23% of days see measurable rain, 67°F average high, 17% of days historically clear (n=248, ERA5 2018–2025).

Shenandoah Valley in October is historically a poor month for sun: only 17% of days clear across 8 years (n=248, avg high 67°F). June is the clearest month for Shenandoah Valley historically. Historical average, not a forecast.

What you are reading: 8-year historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis, not a forecast. A month that is historically 90% clear can still be overcast on your specific trip. For this week’s actual forecast, see the live Shenandoah Valley page. Both can be true at once: “historically strong in this month; this particular week is not.” We label which is which.

Early vs. Late October

Clear-sky percentage for Shenandoah Valley in October, split by half-month. “n” is the number of days sampled across 8 years (2018–2025).
Period	% Clear days	Sample (n)	Avg high
Early October 1st–15th	22%	n=120	67°F
Late October 16th–end	12%	n=128	67°F
Full month average	17%	n=248	67°F

Sunshine & warmth in October

A second measure using actual sunshine hours (ERA5 sunshine_duration), not the daily weather code. A Lowcountry day with 12 hours of sun and a 25-minute afternoon storm is counted below as a warm, sunny day — because it was. How we define this.

Sunshine-based metrics for Shenandoah Valley in October. Primary: % of days ≥ 72°F with > 6 h of sunshine.
Period	Warm & sunny (≥72°F, >6 h sun)	Sample (n)
Early October 1st–15th	38%	n=120
Late October 16th–end	18%	n=128
Full month average	28%	n=248

10.4 h median sunshine per day 71% of days exceed 8 h sunshine 23% of days see ≥ 1 mm rain — rain is not hidden

Comparison (old vs new): WMO-code “clear” bar: 17%. Sunshine-based “warm & sunny”: 28%. The 11-point gap is from brief afternoon convective storms that stamp the whole day as “rain” in the WMO code but leave the bulk of the sunshine untouched.

Bottom line

Shenandoah Valley is a poor choice for sun in October: just 17% of days clear historically (n=248). June is the historically strongest month for sun here. The 8-year record is consistent — this is not a fluke bad stretch.

→ See all destinations in June — historically the best month for sun in Shenandoah Valley.

Every month in Shenandoah Valley

Compare across all months with data. Numbers are historical clear-sky %.

Historical clear-sky % for Shenandoah Valley, all months, ERA5 2018–2025.
Month	% Clear	Sample (n)
January	0%	n=248	All destinations →
February	1%	n=226	All destinations →
March	2%	n=248	All destinations →
April	14%	n=240	All destinations →
May	18%	n=248	All destinations →
June	39%	n=240	All destinations →
July	34%	n=248	All destinations →
August	34%	n=248	All destinations →
September	36%	n=240	All destinations →
October ← this page	17%	n=248	All destinations →
November	4%	n=240	All destinations →
December	0%	n=248	All destinations →

Frequently asked

Does it rain in Shenandoah Valley in October?

Sometimes. Shenandoah Valley sees measurable rain on 23% of days in October historically (n=248 days, ERA5 2018–2025) — not frequent enough to plan around, but not negligible either.

Is Shenandoah Valley good for sun in October?

Not usually. Shenandoah Valley is historically overcast in October: only 17% of days are clear (avg high 67°F, n=248 days, ERA5 2018–2025). June is historically far better for sun here.

How Shenandoah Valley compares in October

Head-to-head clear-sky comparisons against destinations travelers plausibly weigh against Shenandoah Valley this month — same passport tier, similar flight distance, both sides from the same 8-year ERA5 record.

→ Shenandoah Valley vs Taos in October — Taos is 17% clear historically
→ Shenandoah Valley vs Palm Beach in October — Palm Beach is 18% clear historically
→ Shenandoah Valley vs Palm Beach Gardens in October — Palm Beach Gardens is 18% clear historically

→ Shenandoah Valley live forecast — this week’s actual 7-day weather, not historical
→ Best destinations in October — all destinations ranked by October clear-sky %
→ All destinations
→ Raw data (JSON) — buckets, n, source

All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.