ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
Shenandoah Valley vs St. John, USVI: weather in May
St. John, USVI edges out Shenandoah Valley for sun in May: 25% clear historically versus 18% (8-year ERA5 average, a 7-point gap). Both are viable — St. John, USVI is the safer bet.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
Either destination can still surprise you this specific May. For this
week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.
Shenandoah Valley
VA
- Clear days, May
- 18%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 74°F
- Early May (1st–15th)
- 15%
- Late May (16th–end)
- 21%
- Rain frequency
- 46% of days
St. John, USVI
VI
- Clear days, May
- 25%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 78°F
- Early May (1st–15th)
- 23%
- Late May (16th–end)
- 27%
- Rain frequency
- 41% of days
Compare Shenandoah Valley vs St. John, USVI in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.