ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
Phoenix vs Tulum: weather in February
Phoenix edges out Tulum for sun in February: 41% clear historically versus 23% (8-year ERA5 average, a 18-point gap). Tulum also sees measurably more rain than Phoenix this month (45% vs 11% of days). Both are viable — Phoenix is the safer bet.
Phoenix
AZ
- Clear days, February
- 41%
- Sample size
- n=226 days
- Avg high
- 70°F
- Early February (1st–15th)
- 42%
- Late February (16th–end)
- 40%
- Rain frequency
- 11% of days
Tulum
Mexico
- Clear days, February
- 23%
- Sample size
- n=226 days
- Avg high
- 81°F
- Early February (1st–15th)
- 21%
- Late February (16th–end)
- 25%
- Rain frequency
- 45% of days
Frequently asked
Is Phoenix or Tulum warmer in February?
Tulum runs warmer by day in February. Phoenix averages highs of 70°F (highs n=226 days); Tulum averages highs of 81°F (highs n=226 days) (ERA5 2018–2025). Historical averages, not a forecast.
Does it rain more in Phoenix or Tulum in February?
Tulum is measurably wetter than Phoenix. Days with measurable rain: Phoenix 11%, Tulum 45% (n=226 and n=226 days). ERA5 2018–2025; historical, not a forecast.
Which is sunnier in February, Phoenix or Tulum?
Phoenix edges out Tulum for sun in February: 41% clear historically versus 23% (8-year ERA5 average, a 18-point gap). Tulum also sees measurably more rain than Phoenix this month (45% vs 11% of days). Both are viable — Phoenix is the safer bet.
Compare Phoenix vs Tulum in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live forecast for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.