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Arizona · PHX

Phoenix weather, next 16 days

Phoenix, Arizona Just your ID

Phoenix scores 9.2 out of 10 and has 3 genuinely clear days out of 16. Dull days (13) still outnumber bright ones (3), so this is not a good run of weather.

9.2/10
Mostly dull
3 genuinely clear days, 0 partly cloudy, 10 overcast, 3 wet-sky, out of 16 forecast days. Rain is in the hourly forecast on 4 days (57h).
Bright days 3 vs dull days 13. Dull wins, so we do not call this a good forecast.
We are not showing a flattering tier word here. Why the score and the sky can disagree.

6-day run 8–13 Nov, zero rain · 3 clear, rain on 4 of 16 forecast days (57h) — The clouds are winning — 3 clear days out of 6, 83°F · 6-day run 8–13 Nov; rain on 4 of the other 10 days (57h)

The next 16 days in Phoenix

Every number below is the forecast we hold, rendered as text — nothing here is drawn on a canvas or filled in by JavaScript. The rain figure is the highest chance across all 16 days (44%), not the lowest, because the worst number is the useful one.

Booking window Sun 8 Nov–Fri 13 Nov: 9.2/10 for those days alone. The 16-day outlook score (9.2) covers the full table below and includes days outside that window.

Phoenix daily forecast, Sun 8 Nov to Mon 23 Nov (16 days total). Best single day scores 10.0; worst scores 6.2. A lone good day cannot carry the forecast.
Day High Low Rain chance Sky Day score
83°F 60°F 0% Clear clear 10.0
Clear skies, 83°F, zero drama.
83°F 56°F 0% Clear clear 10.0
Clear skies, 83°F, zero drama.
80°F 61°F 0% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 80°F, dry as a bone.
81°F 70°F 0% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 81°F, dry as a bone.
82°F 69°F 0% Clear clear 10.0
Clear skies, 82°F, zero drama.
82°F 70°F 9% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 82°F, dry as a bone.
78°F 70°F 28% Light drizzle wet 7.0
Light drizzle, 78°F — it'll pass — but 5 hours of rain are in the forecast.
75°F 64°F 26% Drizzle wet 6.2
Drizzle, 75°F — it'll pass — but 2 hours of rain are in the forecast.
75°F 65°F 44% Light drizzle wet 6.5
Light drizzle, 75°F — it'll pass — but 16 hours of rain are in the forecast.
72°F 65°F 34% Overcast cloudy 7.6
Overcast, 72°F, light rain possible — but 11 hours of rain are in the forecast.
71°F 66°F 13% Overcast cloudy 8.3
Overcast, 71°F, dry as a bone.
73°F 64°F 13% Overcast cloudy 8.4
Overcast, 73°F, dry as a bone.
72°F 67°F 19% Overcast cloudy 8.2
Overcast, 72°F, dry as a bone.
71°F 63°F 13% Overcast cloudy 8.3
Overcast, 71°F, dry as a bone.
73°F 65°F 16% Overcast cloudy 8.3
Overcast, 73°F, dry as a bone.
70°F 64°F 13% Overcast cloudy 8.2
Overcast, 70°F, dry as a bone.

How this forecast got its score

  • 6 forecast days: 3 clear/mainly clear, 0 partly cloudy, 3 overcast or foggy, 0 with a drizzle/rain/snow sky code, 0 stormy (sky codes; rain hours below).
  • Trimmed mean of day scores 9.2 × 0.55 = 5.09
  • Worst day drag: worst day is 8.5 × 0.25 = 2.12 - one bad day cannot be averaged away.
  • Longest consecutive run of good days (≥7.0) is 6/6 = 100% coverage × 0.20 = 2.00
  • Best single day is 10.0 but it only counts through the trimmed mean - a lone great day cannot carry the window.
  • Hourly forecast: no rain hours in any of the 6 days.
  • Whole 16-day forecast: 3 clear, 0 partly cloudy, 10 overcast or foggy, 3 with a rain sky code, 0 with a storm sky code; rain hours on 4 of them (57h).

The full model, including why a single great day cannot rescue a bad run, is on the methodology page.

Getting to Phoenix

The nearest airport we price is PHX. From New York City the fastest itinerary we have seen out of EWR takes 5h 34m (verified, Duffel), nonstop. Flight times from 56 other departure metros are on the search page.

Where to stay in Phoenix

26 properties we currently hold live rates for, in supplier order. Each price is the total for the stay, taxes and mandatory fees included, as last returned for the window above — a held rate, not a quote, and it moves. A hotel whose total with taxes and fees we cannot confirm shows no price.

Hotels: best time to visit and prices by month

Hotels in Phoenix with enough price history for a month-by-month page: weather by half-month and the nightly rates our searches have observed.

So, should you go?

Phoenix scores 9.2 out of 10 and has 3 genuinely clear days out of 16. Dull days (13) still outnumber bright ones (3), so this is not a good run of weather. There is some sun in this window, but not much. Compare it against the rest of the list before booking.

Frequently asked

Is it raining in Phoenix in the next 16 days?

Yes. 4 of the next 16 days in Phoenix have rain in the forecast (57 forecast rain hours), peaking at 44% chance on the worst day. The run we list, Sun 8 Nov to Fri 13 Nov, is the stretch that clears our rain bar.

How many clear days does Phoenix have in the next 16 days?

3. Phoenix has 3 genuinely clear days out of the next 16.

Is Phoenix good for a trip right now?

Marginal. Phoenix scores 9.2/10, but dull days (13) still outnumber bright ones (3) over the next 16 days.

Phoenix by month — 8-year ERA5 history

Historical clear-sky percentages from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025). This is history, not a forecast — the 16-day forecast above is what is actually coming. They can and do differ.

Phoenix: clear-sky % by month, ERA5 2018–2025. n = days sampled.
Month Historically clear Sample (n)
January 17% n=248 all destinations →
February 41% n=226 all destinations →
March 61% n=248 all destinations →
April 94% n=240 all destinations →
May 95% n=248 all destinations →
June 94% n=240 all destinations →
July 76% n=248 all destinations →
August 76% n=248 all destinations →
September 82% n=240 all destinations →
October 85% n=248 all destinations →
November 63% n=240 all destinations →
December 22% n=248 all destinations →

Each month links to the detailed almanac page for Phoenix in that month. The “all destinations” column links to the full ranking across all destinations for that month.

Forecast data from Open-Meteo, last refreshed 2026-11-08T18:01:12.302753Z. Hotel names and rates come from third-party supplier data and change constantly; the rate shown is the rate we held at refresh time, not a quote. Scores are forecasts, not guarantees, and the whole model is published on our methodology page.