ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
Carmel-by-the-Sea vs Mexico City: weather in October
Essentially a tie in October: Carmel-by-the-Sea is 16% clear historically, Mexico City is 20% clear (8-year ERA5 average) — within the noise. Avg high 67°F vs 74°F. Mexico City also sees measurably more rain than Carmel-by-the-Sea this month (50% vs 9% of days). Pick based on flight time or price, not weather — the weather won't decide this one for you.
Carmel-by-the-Sea
CA
- Clear days, October
- 16%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 67°F
- Early October (1st–15th)
- 19%
- Late October (16th–end)
- 13%
- Rain frequency
- 9% of days
Mexico City
MX
- Clear days, October
- 20%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 74°F
- Early October (1st–15th)
- 10%
- Late October (16th–end)
- 29%
- Rain frequency
- 50% of days
Compare Carmel-by-the-Sea vs Mexico City in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.