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California · MRY

Carmel-by-the-Sea weather, next 16 days

Carmel-by-the-Sea, California Just your ID

Carmel-by-the-Sea scores 8.5 out of 10 and has exactly one genuinely clear day in the next 16. Dull days (14) still outnumber bright ones (1), so this is not a good run of weather.

8.5/10
Mostly dull
1 genuinely clear day, 0 partly cloudy, 8 overcast, 6 wet-sky, out of 16 forecast days. Rain is in the hourly forecast on 10 days (156h).
Bright days 1 vs dull days 14. Dull wins, so we do not call this a good forecast.
We are not showing a flattering tier word here. Why the score and the sky can disagree.

The model gives this forecast 8.5 out of 10 because it is warm and largely rain-free, and those are the two things the score measures. It is not measuring sunshine. With 1 genuinely clear day and 14 dull ones, expect grey skies. We are showing you the number and the contradiction rather than only the number.

7-day run 8–14 Nov, 0.1% rain-affected · 1 clear, rain on 10 of 16 forecast days (156h) — The clouds are winning — 1 clear day out of 7, 79°F · 7-day run 8–14 Nov; rain 14 Nov (1h, overnight); rain on 9 of the other 9 days (155h)

The next 16 days in Carmel-by-the-Sea

Every number below is the forecast we hold, rendered as text — nothing here is drawn on a canvas or filled in by JavaScript. The rain figure is the highest chance across all 16 days (65%), not the lowest, because the worst number is the useful one.

Booking window Sun 8 Nov–Sat 14 Nov: 8.5/10 for those days alone. The 16-day outlook score (8.5) covers the full table below and includes days outside that window.

Carmel-by-the-Sea daily forecast, Sun 8 Nov to Mon 23 Nov (16 days total). Best single day scores 10.0; worst scores 4.0. A lone good day cannot carry the forecast.
Day High Low Rain chance Sky Day score
73°F 53°F 0% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 73°F, dry as a bone.
76°F 57°F 0% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 76°F, dry as a bone.
76°F 58°F 0% Clear clear 10.0
Clear skies, 76°F, zero drama.
79°F 60°F 0% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 79°F, dry as a bone.
76°F 60°F 12% Overcast cloudy 8.4
Overcast, 76°F, dry as a bone.
79°F 60°F 17% Overcast cloudy 8.3
Overcast, 79°F, dry as a bone.
78°F 60°F 42% Overcast cloudy 7.3
Overcast, 78°F, light rain possible — rain overnight only (1 hour), dry while you're up.
65°F 53°F 65% Rain showers wet 4.4
Rain showers, 65°F — it'll pass — but 16 hours of rain are in the forecast.
58°F 54°F 59% Rain showers wet 4.0
Rain showers, 58°F — it'll pass — but 16 hours of rain are in the forecast.
58°F 49°F 33% Light drizzle wet 5.3
Light drizzle, 58°F — it'll pass — but 6 hours of rain are in the forecast.
58°F 49°F 45% Drizzle wet 4.6
Drizzle, 58°F — it'll pass — but 16 hours of rain are in the forecast.
58°F 47°F 42% Light drizzle wet 5.0
Light drizzle, 58°F — it'll pass — but 16 hours of rain are in the forecast.
62°F 49°F 36% Overcast cloudy 6.3
Overcast, 62°F, light rain possible — but 16 hours of rain are in the forecast.
64°F 53°F 29% Overcast cloudy 6.8
Overcast, 64°F, light rain possible — but 3 hours of rain are in the forecast.
64°F 51°F 28% Rain wet 5.0
Rain, 64°F — it'll pass — but 8 hours of rain are in the forecast.
unknown unknown 25% Unknown unknown 6.3
Hazy conditions — rain overnight only (5 hours), dry while you're up.

How this forecast got its score

  • 7 forecast days: 1 clear/mainly clear, 0 partly cloudy, 6 overcast or foggy, 0 with a drizzle/rain/snow sky code, 0 stormy (sky codes; rain hours below).
  • Trimmed mean of day scores 8.4 × 0.55 = 4.64
  • Worst day drag: worst day is 7.3 × 0.25 = 1.82 - one bad day cannot be averaged away.
  • Longest consecutive run of good days (≥7.0) is 7/7 = 100% coverage × 0.20 = 2.00
  • Best single day is 10.0 but it only counts through the trimmed mean - a lone great day cannot carry the window.
  • Hourly forecast: rain on 1 of 7 days (1h): 14 Nov (1h, overnight).
  • Whole 16-day forecast: 1 clear, 0 partly cloudy, 8 overcast or foggy, 6 with a rain sky code, 0 with a storm sky code; rain hours on 10 of them (156h).

The full model, including why a single great day cannot rescue a bad run, is on the methodology page.

Getting to Carmel-by-the-Sea

The nearest airport we price is MRY. From New York City the fastest itinerary we have seen out of EWR takes 8h 17m (verified, Duffel), 1 stop. Flight times from 56 other departure metros are on the search page.

Where to stay in Carmel-by-the-Sea

15 properties we currently hold live rates for, in supplier order. Each price is the total for the stay, taxes and mandatory fees included, as last returned for the window above — a held rate, not a quote, and it moves. A hotel whose total with taxes and fees we cannot confirm shows no price.

So, should you go?

Carmel-by-the-Sea scores 8.5 out of 10 and has exactly one genuinely clear day in the next 16. Dull days (14) still outnumber bright ones (1), so this is not a good run of weather. There is some sun in this window, but not much. Compare it against the rest of the list before booking.

Frequently asked

Is it raining in Carmel-by-the-Sea in the next 16 days?

Yes. 10 of the next 16 days in Carmel-by-the-Sea have rain in the forecast (156 forecast rain hours), peaking at 65% chance on the worst day. The run we list, Sun 8 Nov to Sat 14 Nov, is the stretch that clears our rain bar.

How many clear days does Carmel-by-the-Sea have in the next 16 days?

One. Carmel-by-the-Sea has exactly one genuinely clear day in the next 16.

Is Carmel-by-the-Sea good for a trip right now?

Marginal. Carmel-by-the-Sea scores 8.5/10, but dull days (14) still outnumber bright ones (1) over the next 16 days.

Carmel-by-the-Sea by month — 8-year ERA5 history

Historical clear-sky percentages from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025). This is history, not a forecast — the 16-day forecast above is what is actually coming. They can and do differ.

Carmel-by-the-Sea: clear-sky % by month, ERA5 2018–2025. n = days sampled.
Month Historically clear Sample (n)
January 1% n=248 all destinations →
February 3% n=226 all destinations →
March 1% n=248 all destinations →
April 1% n=240 all destinations →
May 0% n=248 all destinations →
June 4% n=240 all destinations →
July 1% n=248 all destinations →
August 4% n=248 all destinations →
September 10% n=240 all destinations →
October 16% n=248 all destinations →
November 3% n=240 all destinations →
December 1% n=248 all destinations →

Each month links to the detailed almanac page for Carmel-by-the-Sea in that month. The “all destinations” column links to the full ranking across all destinations for that month.

Forecast data from Open-Meteo, last refreshed 2026-11-08T13:01:11.451759Z. Hotel names and rates come from third-party supplier data and change constantly; the rate shown is the rate we held at refresh time, not a quote. Scores are forecasts, not guarantees, and the whole model is published on our methodology page.