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SunnyDays

California · MRY

Carmel-by-the-Sea weather this week

Carmel-by-the-Sea, California

Carmel-by-the-Sea scores 7.4 out of 10 and has no genuinely clear day in the next 7.

7.4/10
No clear day
<built-in method clear of dict object at 0x7ce262ac11c0> genuinely clear days, 1 partly cloudy, 6 overcast, 0 wet, 0 stormy — out of 7 forecast days.
Bright days 1 vs dull days 6. Dull wins, so we do not call this a good week.
We are not showing a flattering tier word here. Why the score and the sky can disagree.

The model gives this week 7.4 out of 10 because it is warm and largely rain-free, and those are the two things the score measures. It is not measuring sunshine. With 0 genuinely clear days and 6 dull ones, expect grey skies. We are showing you the number and the contradiction rather than only the number.

7 cloudy / 0 wet days, no clear days in 7 — Warm, dry, and the sun never shows — zero clear days in 7

The next 7 days in Carmel-by-the-Sea

Every number below is the forecast we hold, rendered as text — nothing here is drawn on a canvas or filled in by JavaScript. The rain figure is the highest chance across all 7 days (3%), not the lowest, because the worst number is the useful one.

Booking window Tue 11 Aug–Thu 13 Aug: 8.8/10 for those days alone. The 7-day outlook score (7.4) covers the full table below and includes days outside that window.

Carmel-by-the-Sea daily forecast, Sat 8 Aug to Fri 14 Aug (7 days total). Best single day scores 9.3; worst scores 6.7. A lone good day cannot carry the week.
Day High Low Rain chance Sky Day score
68°F 56°F 2% Fog cloudy 7.0
Cloudy and dry
62°F 57°F 2% Fog cloudy 6.7
Cloudy and dry
69°F 56°F 1% Fog cloudy 7.0
Cloudy but warm & dry
78°F 58°F 1% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Cloudy but warm & dry
73°F 57°F 3% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Cloudy but warm & dry
76°F 55°F 1% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Cloudy but warm & dry
76°F 54°F 2% Partly cloudy partly 9.3
Partly cloudy and dry

How this week got its score

  • 7 forecast days: 0 clear/mainly clear, 1 partly cloudy, 6 overcast, 0 wet (fog/drizzle/rain/showers), 0 stormy.
  • Trimmed mean of day scores 7.9 × 0.55 = 4.35
  • Worst day drag: worst day is 6.7 × 0.25 = 1.68 - one bad day cannot be averaged away.
  • Longest consecutive run of good days (≥7.0) is 5/7 = 71% coverage × 0.20 = 1.43
  • Best single day is 9.3 but it only counts through the trimmed mean - a lone great day cannot carry the window.
  • Advertised 3-day window (2026-08-11→2026-08-13) scores 8.8 on its own.
  • Legacy gate counted 4/7 days as "perfect sun"; this model counts 0 genuinely clear.

The full model, including why a single great day cannot rescue a bad week, is on the methodology page.

Getting to Carmel-by-the-Sea

The nearest airport we price is MRY. From New York City that is about 5h 36m in the air out of SWF, 2551 miles. Flight times from 55 other departure metros are on the search page.

Where to stay in Carmel-by-the-Sea

1 property we currently hold live rates for, in supplier order. The nightly rate shown is what the supplier returned at the last refresh for the window above — it is a held rate, not a quote, and it moves.

So, should you go?

Carmel-by-the-Sea scores 7.4 out of 10 and has no genuinely clear day in the next 7. There is some sun in this window, but not much. Compare it against the rest of the list before booking.

Carmel-by-the-Sea by month — 8-year ERA5 history

Historical clear-sky percentages from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025). This is history, not a forecast — the 7-day forecast above is this week. They can and do differ.

Carmel-by-the-Sea: clear-sky % by month, ERA5 2018–2025. n = days sampled.
Month Historically clear Sample (n)
January 1% n=248 all destinations →
February 3% n=226 all destinations →
March 1% n=248 all destinations →
April 1% n=240 all destinations →
May 0% n=248 all destinations →
June 4% n=240 all destinations →
July 1% n=248 all destinations →
August 4% n=248 all destinations →
September 10% n=240 all destinations →
October 16% n=248 all destinations →
November 3% n=240 all destinations →
December 1% n=248 all destinations →

Each month links to the detailed almanac page for Carmel-by-the-Sea in that month. The “all destinations” column links to the full ranking across all destinations for that month.

Forecast data from Open-Meteo, last refreshed 2026-08-09T05:01:05.311896Z. Hotel names and rates come from LiteAPI and change constantly; the rate shown is the rate we held at refresh time, not a quote. Scores are forecasts, not guarantees, and the whole model is published on our methodology page.