ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
Cancún vs Phoenix: weather in October
Phoenix is the clear winner for sun in October: 85% of days historically clear versus just 10% in Cancún — a 75-point gap across 8 years of ERA5 data. Cancún also sees measurably more rain than Phoenix this month (70% vs 7% of days). This isn't close.
Cancún
Mexico
- Clear days, October
- 10%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 85°F
- Early October (1st–15th)
- 5%
- Late October (16th–end)
- 15%
- Rain frequency
- 70% of days
Phoenix
AZ
- Clear days, October
- 85%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 89°F
- Early October (1st–15th)
- 79%
- Late October (16th–end)
- 91%
- Rain frequency
- 7% of days
Frequently asked
Is Cancún or Phoenix warmer in October?
Phoenix runs warmer by day in October. Cancún averages highs of 85°F (highs n=248 days); Phoenix averages highs of 89°F (highs n=248 days) (ERA5 2018–2025). Historical averages, not a forecast.
Does it rain more in Cancún or Phoenix in October?
Cancún is measurably wetter than Phoenix. Days with measurable rain: Cancún 70%, Phoenix 7% (n=248 and n=248 days). ERA5 2018–2025; historical, not a forecast.
Which is sunnier in October, Cancún or Phoenix?
Phoenix is the clear winner for sun in October: 85% of days historically clear versus just 10% in Cancún — a 75-point gap across 8 years of ERA5 data. Cancún also sees measurably more rain than Phoenix this month (70% vs 7% of days). This isn't close.
Compare Cancún vs Phoenix in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live forecast for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.