ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
Antigua vs St. Martin: weather in May
St. Martin edges out Antigua for sun in May: 24% clear historically versus 5% (8-year ERA5 average, a 19-point gap). Antigua also sees measurably more rain than St. Martin this month (62% vs 37% of days). Both are viable — St. Martin is the safer bet.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
Either destination can still surprise you this specific May. For this
week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.
Antigua
AG
- Clear days, May
- 5%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 84°F
- Early May (1st–15th)
- 2%
- Late May (16th–end)
- 7%
- Rain frequency
- 62% of days
St. Martin
SX
- Clear days, May
- 24%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 78°F
- Early May (1st–15th)
- 20%
- Late May (16th–end)
- 27%
- Rain frequency
- 37% of days
Compare Antigua vs St. Martin in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.