ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data

Antigua vs St. Martin: weather in February

Essentially a tie in February: Antigua is 7% clear historically, St. Martin is 11% clear (8-year ERA5 average) — within the noise. Avg high 80°F vs 75°F. Antigua also sees measurably more rain than St. Martin this month (57% vs 41% of days). Pick based on flight time or price, not weather — the weather won't decide this one for you.

What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast. Either destination can still surprise you this specific February. For this week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.

Antigua

Clear days, February: 7%
Sample size: n=226 days
Avg high: 80°F
Early February (1st–15th): 4%
Late February (16th–end): 10%
Rain frequency: 57% of days

St. Martin

Clear days, February: 11%
Sample size: n=226 days
Avg high: 75°F
Early February (1st–15th): 8%
Late February (16th–end): 14%
Rain frequency: 41% of days

Compare Antigua vs St. Martin in another month

All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.