ERA5 almanac — 8 years of real data

Vail in July

Vail in July: 26% of days see measurable rain, 78°F average high, 36% of days historically clear (n=248, ERA5 2018–2025).

Vail in July is historically a poor month for sun: only 36% of days clear across 8 years (n=248, avg high 78°F). Historical average, not a forecast.

What you are reading: 8-year historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis, not a forecast. A month that is historically 90% clear can still be overcast on your specific trip. For this week’s actual forecast, see the live Vail page. Both can be true at once: “historically strong in this month; this particular week is not.” We label which is which.

Early vs. Late July

Clear-sky percentage for Vail in July, split by half-month. “n” is the number of days sampled across 8 years (2018–2025).
Period	% Clear days	Sample (n)	Avg high
Early July 1st–15th	44%	n=120	78°F
Late July 16th–end	29%	n=128	78°F
Full month average	36%	n=248	78°F

Sunshine & warmth in July

A second measure using actual sunshine hours (ERA5 sunshine_duration), not the daily weather code. A Lowcountry day with 12 hours of sun and a 25-minute afternoon storm is counted below as a warm, sunny day — because it was. How we define this.

Sunshine-based metrics for Vail in July. Primary: % of days ≥ 72°F with > 6 h of sunshine.
Period	Warm & sunny (≥72°F, >6 h sun)	Sample (n)
Early July 1st–15th	85%	n=120
Late July 16th–end	98%	n=128
Full month average	92%	n=248

13.9 h median sunshine per day 98% of days exceed 8 h sunshine 26% of days see ≥ 1 mm rain — rain is not hidden

Comparison (old vs new): WMO-code “clear” bar: 36%. Sunshine-based “warm & sunny”: 92%. The 56-point gap is from brief afternoon convective storms that stamp the whole day as “rain” in the WMO code but leave the bulk of the sunshine untouched.

Bottom line

Vail is mostly overcast in July historically: only 36% of days are clear across 8 years (n=248), avg high 78°F. Most visitors this month will see more clouds than sun.

Every month in Vail

Compare across all months with data. Numbers are historical clear-sky %.

Historical clear-sky % for Vail, all months, ERA5 2018–2025.
Month	% Clear	Sample (n)
January	0%	n=248	All destinations →
February	0%	n=226	All destinations →
March	0%	n=248	All destinations →
April	0%	n=240	All destinations →
May	0%	n=248	All destinations →
June	30%	n=240	All destinations →
July ← this page	36%	n=248	All destinations →
August	46%	n=248	All destinations →
September	23%	n=240	All destinations →
October	0%	n=248	All destinations →
November	0%	n=240	All destinations →
December	0%	n=248	All destinations →

Frequently asked

Does it rain in Vail in July?

Sometimes. Vail sees measurable rain on 26% of days in July historically (n=248 days, ERA5 2018–2025) — not frequent enough to plan around, but not negligible either.

Is Vail good for sun in July?

It's mixed. Vail in July is clear on 36% of days historically (avg high 78°F, n=248 days, ERA5 2018–2025) — the outcome varies year to year.

How Vail compares in July

Head-to-head clear-sky comparisons against destinations travelers plausibly weigh against Vail this month — same passport tier, similar flight distance, both sides from the same 8-year ERA5 record.

→ Vail vs Albany in July — Albany is 37% clear historically
→ Vail vs Boston in July — Boston is 37% clear historically
→ Vail vs Charlottesville in July — Charlottesville is 37% clear historically

→ Vail live forecast — this week’s actual 7-day weather, not historical
→ Best destinations in July — all destinations ranked by July clear-sky %
→ All destinations
→ Raw data (JSON) — buckets, n, source

All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.