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SunnyDays

ERA5 almanac — 8 years of real data

Oaxaca in October

Oaxaca in October: 46% of days see measurable rain, 77°F average high, 28% of days historically clear (n=248, ERA5 2018–2025).

Oaxaca in October is historically a poor month for sun: only 28% of days clear across 8 years (n=248, avg high 77°F). February is the clearest month for Oaxaca historically. Historical average, not a forecast.

What you are reading: 8-year historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis, not a forecast. A month that is historically 90% clear can still be overcast on your specific trip. For this week’s actual forecast, see the live Oaxaca page. Both can be true at once: “historically strong in this month; this particular week is not.” We label which is which.

Early vs. Late October

Clear-sky percentage for Oaxaca in October, split by half-month. “n” is the number of days sampled across 8 years (2018–2025).
Period % Clear days Sample (n) Avg high
Early October
1st–15th		 22% n=120 77°F
Late October
16th–end		 34% n=128 77°F
Full month average 28% n=248 77°F

Sunshine & warmth in October

A second measure using actual sunshine hours (ERA5 sunshine_duration), not the daily weather code. A Lowcountry day with 12 hours of sun and a 25-minute afternoon storm is counted below as a warm, sunny day — because it was. How we define this.

Sunshine-based metrics for Oaxaca in October. Primary: % of days ≥ 72°F with > 6 h of sunshine.
Period Warm & sunny (≥72°F, >6 h sun) Sample (n)
Early October
1st–15th		 95% n=120
Late October
16th–end		 90% n=128
Full month average 92% n=248
11.2 h median sunshine per day 91% of days exceed 8 h sunshine 46% of days see ≥ 1 mm rain — rain is not hidden
Comparison (old vs new): WMO-code “clear” bar: 28%. Sunshine-based “warm & sunny”: 92%. The 64-point gap is from brief afternoon convective storms that stamp the whole day as “rain” in the WMO code but leave the bulk of the sunshine untouched.

Bottom line

Oaxaca is mostly overcast in October historically: only 28% of days are clear across 8 years (n=248), avg high 77°F. If you want sun in Oaxaca, February is historically much better. Most visitors this month will see more clouds than sun.

→ See all destinations in February — historically the best month for sun in Oaxaca.

Every month in Oaxaca

Compare across all months with data. Numbers are historical clear-sky %.

Historical clear-sky % for Oaxaca, all months, ERA5 2018–2025.
Month % Clear Sample (n)
January 82% n=248 All destinations →
February 90% n=226 All destinations →
March 86% n=248 All destinations →
April 70% n=240 All destinations →
May 45% n=248 All destinations →
June 16% n=240 All destinations →
July 9% n=248 All destinations →
August 6% n=248 All destinations →
September 6% n=240 All destinations →
October ← this page 28% n=248 All destinations →
November 68% n=240 All destinations →
December 84% n=248 All destinations →

Frequently asked

Does it rain in Oaxaca in October?

Sometimes. Oaxaca sees measurable rain on 46% of days in October historically (n=248 days, ERA5 2018–2025) — not frequent enough to plan around, but not negligible either.

Is Oaxaca good for sun in October?

Not usually. Oaxaca is historically overcast in October: only 28% of days are clear (avg high 77°F, n=248 days, ERA5 2018–2025). February is historically far better for sun here.

How Oaxaca compares in October

Head-to-head clear-sky comparisons against destinations travelers plausibly weigh against Oaxaca this month — same passport tier, similar flight distance, both sides from the same 8-year ERA5 record.

All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.