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SunnyDays

ERA5 almanac — 8 years of real data

Nassau in October

Nassau in October: 59% of days see measurable rain, 84°F average high, 14% of days historically clear (n=248, ERA5 2018–2025).

Nassau in October is historically a poor month for sun: only 14% of days clear across 8 years (n=248, avg high 84°F). March is the clearest month for Nassau historically. Historical average, not a forecast.

What you are reading: 8-year historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis, not a forecast. A month that is historically 90% clear can still be overcast on your specific trip. For this week’s actual forecast, see the live Nassau page. Both can be true at once: “historically strong in this month; this particular week is not.” We label which is which.

Early vs. Late October

Clear-sky percentage for Nassau in October, split by half-month. “n” is the number of days sampled across 8 years (2018–2025).
Period % Clear days Sample (n) Avg high
Early October
1st–15th		 8% n=120 84°F
Late October
16th–end		 20% n=128 84°F
Full month average 14% n=248 84°F

Sunshine & warmth in October

A second measure using actual sunshine hours (ERA5 sunshine_duration), not the daily weather code. A Lowcountry day with 12 hours of sun and a 25-minute afternoon storm is counted below as a warm, sunny day — because it was. How we define this.

Sunshine-based metrics for Nassau in October. Primary: % of days ≥ 72°F with > 6 h of sunshine.
Period Warm & sunny (≥72°F, >6 h sun) Sample (n)
Early October
1st–15th		 92% n=120
Late October
16th–end		 91% n=128
Full month average 91% n=248
11.0 h median sunshine per day 85% of days exceed 8 h sunshine 59% of days see ≥ 1 mm rain — rain is not hidden
Comparison (old vs new): WMO-code “clear” bar: 14%. Sunshine-based “warm & sunny”: 91%. The 77-point gap is from brief afternoon convective storms that stamp the whole day as “rain” in the WMO code but leave the bulk of the sunshine untouched.

Bottom line

Nassau is a poor choice for sun in October: just 14% of days clear historically (n=248). March is the historically strongest month for sun here. The 8-year record is consistent — this is not a fluke bad stretch.

→ See all destinations in March — historically the best month for sun in Nassau.

Every month in Nassau

Compare across all months with data. Numbers are historical clear-sky %.

Historical clear-sky % for Nassau, all months, ERA5 2018–2025.
Month % Clear Sample (n)
January 32% n=248 All destinations →
February 34% n=226 All destinations →
March 40% n=248 All destinations →
April 30% n=240 All destinations →
May 20% n=248 All destinations →
June 6% n=240 All destinations →
July 6% n=248 All destinations →
August 8% n=248 All destinations →
September 6% n=240 All destinations →
October ← this page 14% n=248 All destinations →
November 28% n=240 All destinations →
December 33% n=248 All destinations →

Frequently asked

Does it rain in Nassau in October?

Yes, frequently. In Nassau, 59% of days in October see measurable rain, based on 8 years of ERA5 historical data (n=248 days, 2018–2025). This is a historical average, not a forecast.

Is Nassau good for sun in October?

Not usually. Nassau is historically overcast in October: only 14% of days are clear (avg high 84°F, n=248 days, ERA5 2018–2025). March is historically far better for sun here.

All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.