ERA5 almanac — 8 years of real data

Maui in July

Maui in July: 25% of days see measurable rain, 81°F average high, 33% of days historically clear (n=248, ERA5 2018–2025).

Maui in July is historically a poor month for sun: only 33% of days clear across 8 years (n=248, avg high 81°F). Historical average, not a forecast.

What you are reading: 8-year historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis, not a forecast. A month that is historically 90% clear can still be overcast on your specific trip. For this week’s actual forecast, see the live Maui page. Both can be true at once: “historically strong in this month; this particular week is not.” We label which is which.

Early vs. Late July

Clear-sky percentage for Maui in July, split by half-month. “n” is the number of days sampled across 8 years (2018–2025).
Period	% Clear days	Sample (n)	Avg high
Early July 1st–15th	40%	n=120	81°F
Late July 16th–end	27%	n=128	81°F
Full month average	33%	n=248	81°F

Sunshine & warmth in July

A second measure using actual sunshine hours (ERA5 sunshine_duration), not the daily weather code. A Lowcountry day with 12 hours of sun and a 25-minute afternoon storm is counted below as a warm, sunny day — because it was. How we define this.

Sunshine-based metrics for Maui in July. Primary: % of days ≥ 72°F with > 6 h of sunshine.
Period	Warm & sunny (≥72°F, >6 h sun)	Sample (n)
Early July 1st–15th	100%	n=120
Late July 16th–end	98%	n=128
Full month average	99%	n=248

12.9 h median sunshine per day 99% of days exceed 8 h sunshine 25% of days see ≥ 1 mm rain — rain is not hidden

Comparison (old vs new): WMO-code “clear” bar: 33%. Sunshine-based “warm & sunny”: 99%. The 66-point gap is from brief afternoon convective storms that stamp the whole day as “rain” in the WMO code but leave the bulk of the sunshine untouched.

Bottom line

Maui is mostly overcast in July historically: only 33% of days are clear across 8 years (n=248), avg high 81°F. Most visitors this month will see more clouds than sun.

Every month in Maui

Compare across all months with data. Numbers are historical clear-sky %.

Historical clear-sky % for Maui, all months, ERA5 2018–2025.
Month	% Clear	Sample (n)
January	25%	n=248	All destinations →
February	16%	n=226	All destinations →
March	15%	n=248	All destinations →
April	19%	n=240	All destinations →
May	26%	n=248	All destinations →
June	40%	n=240	All destinations →
July ← this page	33%	n=248	All destinations →
August	43%	n=248	All destinations →
September	34%	n=240	All destinations →
October	28%	n=248	All destinations →
November	30%	n=240	All destinations →
December	30%	n=248	All destinations →

Frequently asked

Does it rain in Maui in July?

Sometimes. Maui sees measurable rain on 25% of days in July historically (n=248 days, ERA5 2018–2025) — not frequent enough to plan around, but not negligible either.

Is Maui good for sun in July?

It's mixed. Maui in July is clear on 33% of days historically (avg high 81°F, n=248 days, ERA5 2018–2025) — the outcome varies year to year.

How Maui compares in July

Head-to-head clear-sky comparisons against destinations travelers plausibly weigh against Maui this month — same passport tier, similar flight distance, both sides from the same 8-year ERA5 record.

→ Maui vs Honolulu in July — Honolulu is 20% clear historically
→ Maui vs Lanai in July — Lanai is 20% clear historically

→ Maui live forecast — this week’s actual 7-day weather, not historical
→ Best destinations in July — all destinations ranked by July clear-sky %
→ All destinations
→ Raw data (JSON) — buckets, n, source

All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.