ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
Oaxaca vs Punta Mita: weather in July
Punta Mita edges out Oaxaca for sun in July: 16% clear historically versus 9% (8-year ERA5 average, a 7-point gap). Both are viable — Punta Mita is the safer bet.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
Either destination can still surprise you this specific July. For this
week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.
Oaxaca
MX
- Clear days, July
- 9%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 79°F
- Early July (1st–15th)
- 8%
- Late July (16th–end)
- 10%
- Rain frequency
- 66% of days
Punta Mita
MX
- Clear days, July
- 16%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 87°F
- Early July (1st–15th)
- 21%
- Late July (16th–end)
- 11%
- Rain frequency
- 69% of days
Compare Oaxaca vs Punta Mita in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.