ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
Costa Rica — Manuel Antonio vs Tulum: weather in October
Tulum edges out Costa Rica — Manuel Antonio for sun in October: 11% clear historically versus 0% (8-year ERA5 average, a 11-point gap). Costa Rica — Manuel Antonio also sees measurably more rain than Tulum this month (97% vs 70% of days). Both are viable — Tulum is the safer bet.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
Either destination can still surprise you this specific October. For this
week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.
Costa Rica — Manuel Antonio
CR
- Clear days, October
- 0%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 82°F
- Early October (1st–15th)
- 1%
- Late October (16th–end)
- 0%
- Rain frequency
- 97% of days
Tulum
MX
- Clear days, October
- 11%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 86°F
- Early October (1st–15th)
- 6%
- Late October (16th–end)
- 16%
- Rain frequency
- 70% of days
Compare Costa Rica — Manuel Antonio vs Tulum in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.