ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
Bozeman vs Punta Mita: weather in October
Punta Mita edges out Bozeman for sun in October: 26% clear historically versus 5% (8-year ERA5 average, a 21-point gap). Punta Mita also sees measurably more rain than Bozeman this month (54% vs 30% of days). Both are viable — Punta Mita is the safer bet.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
Either destination can still surprise you this specific October. For this
week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.
Bozeman
MT
- Clear days, October
- 5%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 55°F
- Early October (1st–15th)
- 10%
- Late October (16th–end)
- 1%
- Rain frequency
- 30% of days
Punta Mita
MX
- Clear days, October
- 26%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 85°F
- Early October (1st–15th)
- 17%
- Late October (16th–end)
- 34%
- Rain frequency
- 54% of days
Compare Bozeman vs Punta Mita in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.