ERA5 almanac — 8 years of real data

Scottsdale in March

Scottsdale in March: 17% of days see measurable rain, 76°F average high, 57% of days historically clear (n=248, ERA5 2018–2025).

Scottsdale in March is a mixed month for sun: 57% of days historically clear (n=248, avg high 76°F). The outcome varies year to year — check the early/late split below. Historical average, not a forecast.

What you are reading: 8-year historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis, not a forecast. A month that is historically 90% clear can still be overcast on your specific trip. For this week’s actual forecast, see the live Scottsdale page. Both can be true at once: “historically strong in this month; this particular week is not.” We label which is which.

Early vs. Late March

Clear-sky percentage for Scottsdale in March, split by half-month. “n” is the number of days sampled across 8 years (2018–2025).
Period	% Clear days	Sample (n)	Avg high
Early March 1st–15th	48%	n=120	76°F
Late March 16th–end	66%	n=128	76°F
Full month average	57%	n=248	76°F

Sunshine & warmth in March

A second measure using actual sunshine hours (ERA5 sunshine_duration), not the daily weather code. A Lowcountry day with 12 hours of sun and a 25-minute afternoon storm is counted below as a warm, sunny day — because it was. How we define this.

Sunshine-based metrics for Scottsdale in March. Primary: % of days ≥ 72°F with > 6 h of sunshine.
Period	Warm & sunny (≥72°F, >6 h sun)	Sample (n)
Early March 1st–15th	61%	n=120
Late March 16th–end	71%	n=128
Full month average	66%	n=248

11.2 h median sunshine per day 92% of days exceed 8 h sunshine 17% of days see ≥ 1 mm rain — rain is not hidden

Comparison (old vs new): WMO-code “clear” bar: 57%. Sunshine-based “warm & sunny”: 66%.

Bottom line

Scottsdale in March is genuinely mixed: 57% of days historically clear (n=248), avg high 76°F — more clear than cloudy. The outcome varies year to year; don't book if you need guaranteed sun.

Every month in Scottsdale

Compare across all months with data. Numbers are historical clear-sky %.

Historical clear-sky % for Scottsdale, all months, ERA5 2018–2025.
Month	% Clear	Sample (n)
January	18%	n=248	All destinations →
February	42%	n=226	All destinations →
March ← this page	57%	n=248	All destinations →
April	92%	n=240	All destinations →
May	93%	n=248	All destinations →
June	95%	n=240	All destinations →
July	76%	n=248	All destinations →
August	75%	n=248	All destinations →
September	82%	n=240	All destinations →
October	83%	n=248	All destinations →
November	65%	n=240	All destinations →
December	25%	n=248	All destinations →

Frequently asked

Does it rain in Scottsdale in March?

Rarely. Only 17% of days in Scottsdale see measurable rain in March, based on 8 years of ERA5 historical data (n=248 days, 2018–2025). This is a historical average, not a forecast.

Is Scottsdale good for sun in March?

It's mixed. Scottsdale in March is clear on 57% of days historically (avg high 76°F, n=248 days, ERA5 2018–2025) — the outcome varies year to year.

How Scottsdale compares in March

Head-to-head clear-sky comparisons against destinations travelers plausibly weigh against Scottsdale this month — same passport tier, similar flight distance, both sides from the same 8-year ERA5 record.

→ Scottsdale vs Tucson in March — Tucson is 57% clear historically
→ Scottsdale vs Palm Desert in March — Palm Desert is 55% clear historically
→ Scottsdale vs Palm Springs Desert in March — Palm Springs Desert is 59% clear historically

→ Scottsdale live forecast — this week’s actual 7-day weather, not historical
→ Best destinations in March — all destinations ranked by March clear-sky %
→ All destinations
→ Raw data (JSON) — buckets, n, source

All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.