ERA5 almanac — 8 years of real data

Puerto Vallarta in October

Puerto Vallarta in October: 51% of days see measurable rain, 86°F average high, 22% of days historically clear (n=248, ERA5 2018–2025).

Puerto Vallarta in October is historically a poor month for sun: only 22% of days clear across 8 years (n=248, avg high 86°F). March is the clearest month for Puerto Vallarta historically. Historical average, not a forecast.

What you are reading: 8-year historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis, not a forecast. A month that is historically 90% clear can still be overcast on your specific trip. For this week’s actual forecast, see the live Puerto Vallarta page. Both can be true at once: “historically strong in this month; this particular week is not.” We label which is which.

Early vs. Late October

Clear-sky percentage for Puerto Vallarta in October, split by half-month. “n” is the number of days sampled across 8 years (2018–2025).
Period	% Clear days	Sample (n)	Avg high
Early October 1st–15th	15%	n=120	86°F
Late October 16th–end	29%	n=128	86°F
Full month average	22%	n=248	86°F

Sunshine & warmth in October

A second measure using actual sunshine hours (ERA5 sunshine_duration), not the daily weather code. A Lowcountry day with 12 hours of sun and a 25-minute afternoon storm is counted below as a warm, sunny day — because it was. How we define this.

Sunshine-based metrics for Puerto Vallarta in October. Primary: % of days ≥ 72°F with > 6 h of sunshine.
Period	Warm & sunny (≥72°F, >6 h sun)	Sample (n)
Early October 1st–15th	91%	n=120
Late October 16th–end	90%	n=128
Full month average	90%	n=248

10.6 h median sunshine per day 83% of days exceed 8 h sunshine 51% of days see ≥ 1 mm rain — rain is not hidden

Comparison (old vs new): WMO-code “clear” bar: 22%. Sunshine-based “warm & sunny”: 90%. The 68-point gap is from brief afternoon convective storms that stamp the whole day as “rain” in the WMO code but leave the bulk of the sunshine untouched.

Bottom line

Puerto Vallarta is mostly overcast in October historically: only 22% of days are clear across 8 years (n=248), avg high 86°F. If you want sun in Puerto Vallarta, March is historically much better. Most visitors this month will see more clouds than sun.

→ See all destinations in March — historically the best month for sun in Puerto Vallarta.

Every month in Puerto Vallarta

Compare across all months with data. Numbers are historical clear-sky %.

Historical clear-sky % for Puerto Vallarta, all months, ERA5 2018–2025.
Month	% Clear	Sample (n)
January	86%	n=248	All destinations →
February	87%	n=226	All destinations →
March	99%	n=248	All destinations →
April	99%	n=240	All destinations →
May	93%	n=248	All destinations →
June	38%	n=240	All destinations →
July	10%	n=248	All destinations →
August	1%	n=248	All destinations →
September	4%	n=240	All destinations →
October ← this page	22%	n=248	All destinations →
November	77%	n=240	All destinations →
December	85%	n=248	All destinations →

Frequently asked

Does it rain in Puerto Vallarta in October?

Yes, frequently. In Puerto Vallarta, 51% of days in October see measurable rain, based on 8 years of ERA5 historical data (n=248 days, 2018–2025). This is a historical average, not a forecast.

Is Puerto Vallarta good for sun in October?

Not usually. Puerto Vallarta is historically overcast in October: only 22% of days are clear (avg high 86°F, n=248 days, ERA5 2018–2025). March is historically far better for sun here.

How Puerto Vallarta compares in October

Head-to-head clear-sky comparisons against destinations travelers plausibly weigh against Puerto Vallarta this month — same passport tier, similar flight distance, both sides from the same 8-year ERA5 record.

→ Puerto Vallarta vs Bend in October — Bend is 22% clear historically
→ Puerto Vallarta vs Asheville in October — Asheville is 23% clear historically
→ Puerto Vallarta vs Naples in October — Naples is 23% clear historically

→ Puerto Vallarta live forecast — this week’s actual 7-day weather, not historical
→ Best destinations in October — all destinations ranked by October clear-sky %
→ All destinations
→ Raw data (JSON) — buckets, n, source

All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.