ERA5 almanac — 8 years of real data

Moab in October

Moab in October: 16% of days see measurable rain, 70°F average high, 41% of days historically clear (n=248, ERA5 2018–2025).

Moab in October is a mixed month for sun: 41% of days historically clear (n=248, avg high 70°F). The outcome varies year to year — check the early/late split below. Historical average, not a forecast.

What you are reading: 8-year historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis, not a forecast. A month that is historically 90% clear can still be overcast on your specific trip. For this week’s actual forecast, see the live Moab page. Both can be true at once: “historically strong in this month; this particular week is not.” We label which is which.

Early vs. Late October

Clear-sky percentage for Moab in October, split by half-month. “n” is the number of days sampled across 8 years (2018–2025).
Period	% Clear days	Sample (n)	Avg high
Early October 1st–15th	55%	n=120	70°F
Late October 16th–end	27%	n=128	70°F
Full month average	41%	n=248	70°F

Sunshine & warmth in October

A second measure using actual sunshine hours (ERA5 sunshine_duration), not the daily weather code. A Lowcountry day with 12 hours of sun and a 25-minute afternoon storm is counted below as a warm, sunny day — because it was. How we define this.

Sunshine-based metrics for Moab in October. Primary: % of days ≥ 72°F with > 6 h of sunshine.
Period	Warm & sunny (≥72°F, >6 h sun)	Sample (n)
Early October 1st–15th	63%	n=120
Late October 16th–end	27%	n=128
Full month average	44%	n=248

10.6 h median sunshine per day 91% of days exceed 8 h sunshine 16% of days see ≥ 1 mm rain — rain is not hidden

Comparison (old vs new): WMO-code “clear” bar: 41%. Sunshine-based “warm & sunny”: 44%.

Bottom line

Moab in October is genuinely mixed: 41% of days historically clear (n=248), avg high 70°F — more cloudy than clear. The two halves differ materially (55% early, 27% late) — favour the early half of the month. The outcome varies year to year; don't book if you need guaranteed sun.

Every month in Moab

Compare across all months with data. Numbers are historical clear-sky %.

Historical clear-sky % for Moab, all months, ERA5 2018–2025.
Month	% Clear	Sample (n)
January	0%	n=248	All destinations →
February	0%	n=226	All destinations →
March	4%	n=248	All destinations →
April	46%	n=240	All destinations →
May	73%	n=248	All destinations →
June	88%	n=240	All destinations →
July	90%	n=248	All destinations →
August	84%	n=248	All destinations →
September	84%	n=240	All destinations →
October ← this page	41%	n=248	All destinations →
November	2%	n=240	All destinations →
December	0%	n=248	All destinations →

Frequently asked

Does it rain in Moab in October?

Rarely. Only 16% of days in Moab see measurable rain in October, based on 8 years of ERA5 historical data (n=248 days, 2018–2025). This is a historical average, not a forecast.

Is Moab good for sun in October?

It's mixed. Moab in October is clear on 41% of days historically (avg high 70°F, n=248 days, ERA5 2018–2025) — the outcome varies year to year.

How Moab compares in October

Head-to-head clear-sky comparisons against destinations travelers plausibly weigh against Moab this month — same passport tier, similar flight distance, both sides from the same 8-year ERA5 record.

→ Moab vs Tampa in October — Tampa is 41% clear historically
→ Moab vs New Orleans in October — New Orleans is 42% clear historically
→ Moab vs Sea Island in October — Sea Island is 42% clear historically

→ Moab live forecast — this week’s actual 7-day weather, not historical
→ Best destinations in October — all destinations ranked by October clear-sky %
→ All destinations
→ Raw data (JSON) — buckets, n, source

All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.