ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
Phoenix vs Santa Barbara: weather in October
Essentially a tie in October: Phoenix is 85% clear historically, Santa Barbara is 81% clear (8-year ERA5 average) — within the noise. Avg high 89°F vs 80°F. Pick based on flight time or price, not weather — the weather won't decide this one for you.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
Either destination can still surprise you this specific October. For this
week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.
Phoenix
AZ
- Clear days, October
- 85%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 89°F
- Early October (1st–15th)
- 79%
- Late October (16th–end)
- 91%
- Rain frequency
- 7% of days
Santa Barbara
CA
- Clear days, October
- 81%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 80°F
- Early October (1st–15th)
- 82%
- Late October (16th–end)
- 81%
- Rain frequency
- 5% of days
Compare Phoenix vs Santa Barbara in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.