ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
New York City vs St. John, USVI: weather in October
Essentially a tie in October: New York City is 13% clear historically, St. John, USVI is 15% clear (8-year ERA5 average) — within the noise. Avg high 66°F vs 80°F. St. John, USVI also sees measurably more rain than New York City this month (59% vs 32% of days). Pick based on flight time or price, not weather — the weather won't decide this one for you.
New York City
NY
- Clear days, October
- 13%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 66°F
- Early October (1st–15th)
- 18%
- Late October (16th–end)
- 8%
- Rain frequency
- 32% of days
St. John, USVI
VI
- Clear days, October
- 15%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 80°F
- Early October (1st–15th)
- 18%
- Late October (16th–end)
- 13%
- Rain frequency
- 59% of days
Compare New York City vs St. John, USVI in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.