ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
Mérida vs Oaxaca: weather in January
Oaxaca edges out Mérida for sun in January: 82% clear historically versus 55% (8-year ERA5 average, a 27-point gap). Mérida also sees measurably more rain than Oaxaca this month (20% vs 2% of days). Both are viable — Oaxaca is the safer bet.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
Either destination can still surprise you this specific January. For this
week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.
Mérida
MX
- Clear days, January
- 55%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 83°F
- Early January (1st–15th)
- 56%
- Late January (16th–end)
- 54%
- Rain frequency
- 20% of days
Oaxaca
MX
- Clear days, January
- 82%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 79°F
- Early January (1st–15th)
- 82%
- Late January (16th–end)
- 82%
- Rain frequency
- 2% of days
Compare Mérida vs Oaxaca in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.