ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
Gulf Shores vs Tulum: weather in March
Tulum edges out Gulf Shores for sun in March: 28% clear historically versus 10% (8-year ERA5 average, a 18-point gap). Both are viable — Tulum is the safer bet.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
Either destination can still surprise you this specific March. For this
week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.
Gulf Shores
AL
- Clear days, March
- 10%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 70°F
- Early March (1st–15th)
- 6%
- Late March (16th–end)
- 13%
- Rain frequency
- 38% of days
Tulum
MX
- Clear days, March
- 28%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 84°F
- Early March (1st–15th)
- 25%
- Late March (16th–end)
- 30%
Compare Gulf Shores vs Tulum in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.