ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
Aruba vs St. Martin: weather in October
Essentially a tie in October: Aruba is 14% clear historically, St. Martin is 18% clear (8-year ERA5 average) — within the noise. Avg high 88°F vs 80°F. Pick based on flight time or price, not weather — the weather won't decide this one for you.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
Either destination can still surprise you this specific October. For this
week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.
Aruba
AW
- Clear days, October
- 14%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 88°F
- Early October (1st–15th)
- 17%
- Late October (16th–end)
- 12%
St. Martin
SX
- Clear days, October
- 18%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 80°F
- Early October (1st–15th)
- 19%
- Late October (16th–end)
- 17%
Compare Aruba vs St. Martin in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.