ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data
Aruba vs Gulf Shores: weather in July
Aruba edges out Gulf Shores for sun in July: 22% clear historically versus 9% (8-year ERA5 average, a 13-point gap). Gulf Shores also sees measurably more rain than Aruba this month (63% vs 40% of days). Both are viable — Aruba is the safer bet.
What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast.
Either destination can still surprise you this specific July. For this
week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.
Aruba
AW
- Clear days, July
- 22%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 87°F
- Early July (1st–15th)
- 18%
- Late July (16th–end)
- 25%
- Rain frequency
- 40% of days
Gulf Shores
AL
- Clear days, July
- 9%
- Sample size
- n=248 days
- Avg high
- 87°F
- Early July (1st–15th)
- 12%
- Late July (16th–end)
- 7%
- Rain frequency
- 63% of days
Compare Aruba vs Gulf Shores in another month
All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.