Tulum · weather and prices by month
Best time to visit Casa Caribe Tulum
The best weather at Casa Caribe Tulum is 16–30 Apr: on 100% of days it is warm with 6+ hours of sun, and rain falls on 28% of days. In the quotes we collected between 4 Nov 2026 and 5 Nov 2026 for 3-night stays in the coming months, the cheapest good-weather month is July 2027: $218 a night for a check-in on 15 Jul 2027, against $292 for January 2027, the dearest month quoted.
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Tulum does not pass our rain rule in the current forecast (run 2026-11-08 05:02 UTC). What the forecast says →
The rain rule this uses
We look for a run of days in a destination's forecast that clears every check below. One failing day fails the whole run — a wet day is never averaged away against dry ones.
- Every day in the run: daytime high above 70 °F (21.1 °C) and no higher than 100 °F (37.8 °C), with a complete hour-by-hour forecast. A day with missing hours fails; we don't fill gaps with guesses.
- No thunderstorm hours, day or night.
- An hour counts as wet if the forecast codes rain, drizzle, showers or snow, or gives a 25% or higher chance of precipitation, or 0.2 mm or more of it. Wet hours between 23:00 and 07:00 count at 25% weight because you're asleep; storms never get that discount.
- No single day may carry more than 3 weighted wet hours.
- Across the whole run, weighted wet hours must stay under 5% of its hours.
- Runs are 3–14 days long, found within the next 16 days of forecast.
Those numbers are read from our live settings each time this page is rendered.
We do not gate on cloud. A warm, dry, overcast day is a good day; rain is what ruins a trip. Cloud only affects ranking.
Forecast data comes from Open-Meteo. The 0–10 score built on top of this is explained on the methodology page.
Weather by half-month
8 years of ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025) from Open-Meteo, at the almanac point for Tulum, Mexico (20.2114, -87.4654), 1 km from the hotel. That is the nearest point in our almanac, not a station at the hotel. “Warm + sun” = share of days with a high of at least 72°F and more than 6 hours of sunshine. “Rain” = share of days with any precipitation.
| Period | Warm + sun | Rain | Median sun | Avg high | Days | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–15 Jan | 98% | 42% | 10.1 h | 80°F | n=120 | Excellent |
| 16–31 Jan | 95% | 57% | 10.2 h | 80°F | n=128 | Sunny, but rain on 57% of days |
| 1–15 Feb | 100% | 50% | 10.8 h | 81°F | n=120 | Sunny, but rain on 50% of days |
| 16–28/29 Feb | 98% | 40% | 11.4 h | 82°F | n=106 | Excellent |
| 1–15 Mar | 98% | 36% | 11.7 h | 83°F | n=120 | Excellent |
| 16–31 Mar | 100% | 35% | 12.0 h | 84°F | n=128 | Excellent |
| 1–15 Apr | 98% | 30% | 12.0 h | 85°F | n=120 | Excellent |
| 16–30 Apr · best weather | 100% | 28% | 12.0 h | 86°F | n=120 | Excellent |
| 1–15 May | 100% | 43% | 12.2 h | 87°F | n=120 | Excellent |
| 16–31 May | 95% | 58% | 12.4 h | 87°F | n=128 | Sunny, but rain on 58% of days |
| 1–15 Jun | 89% | 65% | 12.4 h | 86°F | n=120 | Sunny, but rain on 65% of days |
| 16–30 Jun | 85% | 73% | 12.1 h | 86°F | n=120 | Sunny, but rain on 73% of days |
| 1–15 Jul | 98% | 45% | 12.1 h | 88°F | n=120 | Excellent |
| 16–31 Jul | 98% | 58% | 12.0 h | 88°F | n=128 | Sunny, but rain on 58% of days |
| 1–15 Aug | 98% | 62% | 12.0 h | 89°F | n=120 | Sunny, but rain on 62% of days |
| 16–31 Aug | 97% | 74% | 12.0 h | 88°F | n=128 | Sunny, but rain on 74% of days |
| 1–15 Sep | 92% | 72% | 11.8 h | 87°F | n=120 | Sunny, but rain on 72% of days |
| 16–30 Sep | 98% | 72% | 11.3 h | 88°F | n=120 | Sunny, but rain on 72% of days |
| 1–15 Oct | 90% | 74% | 11.0 h | 87°F | n=120 | Sunny, but rain on 74% of days |
| 16–31 Oct | 89% | 66% | 11.0 h | 85°F | n=128 | Sunny, but rain on 66% of days |
| 1–15 Nov | 94% | 60% | 11.0 h | 84°F | n=120 | Sunny, but rain on 60% of days |
| 16–30 Nov | 98% | 45% | 10.8 h | 83°F | n=120 | Excellent |
| 1–15 Dec | 97% | 46% | 10.6 h | 82°F | n=120 | Sunny, but rain on 46% of days |
| 16–31 Dec | 95% | 51% | 10.1 h | 80°F | n=128 | Sunny, but rain on 51% of days |
Verdict rules: warm+6h ≥ 85 and rain ≤ 45 → Excellent | warm+6h ≥ 60 and rain > 45 → Sunny, but rain on N% of days | warm+6h ≥ 60 → Good | warm+6h ≥ 30 → Mixed — shoulder season | avg high ≥ 65°F → Mild but often grey | otherwise → Too cool for the pool.
Nightly prices by check-in month
Forward quotes, not a price anyone paid “Quoted” rows are what RouteStack quoted us for future check-ins (3 nights, 2 adults, one fixed check-in date per month), searched months ahead of the stay between 23 Oct 2026 and 5 Nov 2026 (12 quotes). Quoted rows are never mixed into observed rows.
Today’s price can be higher or lower. Months not listed have no prices yet. The supplier does not say whether these nightly figures include taxes and mandatory fees, so they may be before taxes and fees: this is history, not a total price for a stay.
| Check-in month | Source | Median / night | Range | Count | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | Quoted on 23 Oct 2026 for November check-ins | $212 | — | n=1 | check-in Sun 15 Nov 2026 |
| December 2026 | Quoted between 23 Oct 2026 and 4 Nov 2026 for December check-ins | $214 | $212–$216 | n=2 | check-in Tue 15 Dec 2026 |
| January 2027 | Quoted between 23 Oct 2026 and 4 Nov 2026 for January check-ins | $322 | $292–$351 | n=2 | check-in Fri 15 Jan 2027 |
| July 2027 | Quoted between 23 Oct 2026 and 5 Nov 2026 for July check-ins | $215 | $212–$218 | n=2 | check-in Thu 15 Jul 2027 |
| August 2027 | Quoted between 23 Oct 2026 and 5 Nov 2026 for August check-ins | $196 | $179–$214 | n=2 | check-in Sun 15 Aug 2027 |
| September 2027 | Quoted between 23 Oct 2026 and 5 Nov 2026 for September check-ins | $195 | $179–$212 | n=2 | check-in Wed 15 Sep 2027 |
| October 2027 | Quoted on 5 Nov 2026 for October check-ins | $218 | — | n=1 | check-in Fri 15 Oct 2027 |
Getting there
Fastest itinerary we have seen into CUN (111 km from the hotel) from each origin city, from our route probes. These are observed itinerary durations on the date shown, not a schedule.
| From | Airport | Duration | Stops | Carriers | Seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City | JFK | 4h 14m (verified, Duffel) | 0 | Aeromexico | 2026-10-23 |
Questions
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How this page is made: it exists because we hold RouteStack prices for check-ins in 7 calendar months (observed or quoted; the bar is 6), its name and coordinates, and an almanac point within 50 km. Hotel details and prices: RouteStack listing 70478950. Weather: Open-Meteo ERA5. More on Tulum. Methodology.