Oregon · MFR

Crater Lake weather this week

Crater Lake scores 8.6 out of 10 and has exactly one genuinely clear day in the next 7. Dull days (6) still outnumber bright ones (1), so this is not a good week.

8.6/10

Mostly dull

1 genuinely clear day, 0 partly cloudy, 6 overcast, 0 wet, 0 stormy — out of 7 forecast days.

Bright days 1 vs dull days 6. Dull wins, so we do not call this a good week.

We are not showing a flattering tier word here. Why the score and the sky can disagree.

The model gives this week 8.6 out of 10 because it is warm and largely rain-free, and those are the two things the score measures. It is not measuring sunshine. With 1 genuinely clear day and 6 dull ones, expect grey skies. We are showing you the number and the contradiction rather than only the number.

1 clear of 7 days · best run 7 days — The clouds are winning — 1 clear day out of 7, 82°F

The next 7 days in Crater Lake

Every number below is the forecast we hold, rendered as text — nothing here is drawn on a canvas or filled in by JavaScript. The rain figure is the highest chance across all 7 days (13%), not the lowest, because the worst number is the useful one.

Booking window Sun 16 Aug–Tue 18 Aug: 9.1/10 for those days alone. The 7-day outlook score (8.6) covers the full table below and includes days outside that window.

Crater Lake daily forecast, Fri 14 Aug to Thu 20 Aug (7 days total). Best single day scores 10.0; worst scores 7.8. A lone good day cannot carry the week.
Day	High	Low	Rain chance	Sky	Day score
Fri 14 Aug	67°F	49°F	13%	Overcast cloudy	7.8 Cloudy and dry
Sat 15 Aug	69°F	49°F	13%	Overcast cloudy	8.1 Cloudy but warm & dry
Sun 16 Aug	75°F	48°F	2%	Overcast cloudy	8.5 Cloudy but warm & dry
Mon 17 Aug	74°F	50°F	5%	Overcast cloudy	8.5 Cloudy but warm & dry
Tue 18 Aug	72°F	46°F	4%	Clear clear	10.0 Clear and perfect
Wed 19 Aug	79°F	46°F	6%	Overcast cloudy	8.5 Cloudy but warm & dry
Thu 20 Aug	82°F	52°F	12%	Overcast cloudy	8.4 Cloudy but warm & dry

How this week got its score

7 forecast days: 1 clear/mainly clear, 0 partly cloudy, 6 overcast, 0 wet (fog/drizzle/rain/showers), 0 stormy.
Trimmed mean of day scores 8.4 × 0.55 = 4.62
Worst day drag: worst day is 7.8 × 0.25 = 1.95 - one bad day cannot be averaged away.
Longest consecutive run of good days (≥7.0) is 7/7 = 100% coverage × 0.20 = 2.00
Best single day is 10.0 but it only counts through the trimmed mean - a lone great day cannot carry the window.
Advertised 3-day window (2026-08-16→2026-08-18) scores 9.1 on its own.
Legacy gate counted 5/7 days as "perfect sun"; this model counts 1 genuinely clear.

The full model, including why a single great day cannot rescue a bad week, is on the methodology page.

Getting to Crater Lake

The nearest airport we price is MFR. From New York City that is about 5h 27m in the air out of SWF, 2472 miles. Then about 1h 26m to drive from MFR (est. 55 mi — road model, not real routing). Total door-to-lounger: 6h 53m. Flight times from 55 other departure metros are on the search page.

Where to stay in Crater Lake

We hold no live hotel rates for Crater Lake right now, so there is nothing honest to show here. Rates return as soon as the supplier does — the refresh state is on system status.

So, should you go?

Crater Lake scores 8.6 out of 10 and has exactly one genuinely clear day in the next 7. Dull days (6) still outnumber bright ones (1), so this is not a good week. There is some sun in this window, but not much. Compare it against the rest of the list before booking.

Forecast data from Open-Meteo, last refreshed 2026-08-14T08:01:06.015434Z. Hotel names and rates come from LiteAPI and change constantly; the rate shown is the rate we held at refresh time, not a quote. Scores are forecasts, not guarantees, and the whole model is published on our methodology page.