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Oregon · MFR

Crater Lake weather this week

Crater Lake, Oregon Just your ID

Crater Lake scores 8.8 out of 10 and has exactly one genuinely clear day in the next 16. Dull days (8) still outnumber bright ones (1), so this is not a good week.

8.8/10
Mostly dull
1 genuinely clear day, 0 partly cloudy, 8 overcast, 0 wet, 0 stormy — out of 16 forecast days.
Bright days 1 vs dull days 8. Dull wins, so we do not call this a good week.
We are not showing a flattering tier word here. Why the score and the sky can disagree.

The model gives this week 8.8 out of 10 because it is warm and largely rain-free, and those are the two things the score measures. It is not measuring sunshine. With 1 genuinely clear day and 8 dull ones, expect grey skies. We are showing you the number and the contradiction rather than only the number.

9-day window, zero rain — The clouds are winning — 1 clear day out of 9, 76°F

The next 16 days in Crater Lake

Every number below is the forecast we hold, rendered as text — nothing here is drawn on a canvas or filled in by JavaScript. The rain figure is the highest chance across all 16 days (6%), not the lowest, because the worst number is the useful one.

Booking window Sat 3 Oct–Sun 11 Oct: 8.8/10 for those days alone. The 16-day outlook score (8.8) covers the full table below and includes days outside that window.

Crater Lake daily forecast, Mon 28 Sep to Tue 13 Oct (16 days total). Best single day scores 10.0; worst scores 7.3. A lone good day cannot carry the week.
Day High Low Rain chance Sky Day score
58°F 38°F 1% Clear clear 8.3
Clear skies, 58°F — pack a layer.
62°F 40°F 2% Overcast cloudy 7.3
Overcast, 62°F, toasty with a lid on.
69°F 43°F 0% Overcast cloudy 8.1
Overcast, 69°F, dry as a bone.
68°F 47°F 0% Overcast cloudy 8.0
Overcast, 68°F, toasty with a lid on.
67°F 44°F 0% Overcast cloudy 7.9
Overcast, 67°F, toasty with a lid on.
74°F 46°F 0% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 74°F, dry as a bone.
76°F 51°F 1% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 76°F, dry as a bone.
76°F 54°F 3% Clear clear 10.0
Clear skies, 76°F, zero drama.
76°F 53°F 2% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 76°F, dry as a bone.
75°F 52°F 2% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 75°F, dry as a bone.
72°F 52°F 5% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 72°F, dry as a bone.
75°F 53°F 3% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 75°F, dry as a bone.
73°F 53°F 3% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 73°F, dry as a bone.
73°F 50°F 3% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 73°F, dry as a bone.
66°F 45°F 6% Overcast cloudy 7.8
Overcast, 66°F, toasty with a lid on.
65°F 41°F 6% Mainly clear clear 8.9
Clear skies, 65°F — pack a layer.

How this week got its score

  • 9 forecast days: 1 clear/mainly clear, 0 partly cloudy, 8 overcast, 0 wet (fog/drizzle/rain/showers), 0 stormy.
  • Trimmed mean of day scores 8.5 × 0.55 = 4.68
  • Worst day drag: worst day is 8.5 × 0.25 = 2.12 - one bad day cannot be averaged away.
  • Longest consecutive run of good days (≥7.0) is 9/9 = 100% coverage × 0.20 = 2.00
  • Best single day is 10.0 but it only counts through the trimmed mean - a lone great day cannot carry the window.

The full model, including why a single great day cannot rescue a bad week, is on the methodology page.

Getting to Crater Lake

The nearest airport we price is MFR. From New York City that is about 5h 27m in the air out of SWF, 2472 miles. Then about 1h 26m to drive from MFR (est. 55 mi — road model, not real routing). Total door-to-lounger: 6h 53m. Flight times from 55 other departure metros are on the search page.

Where to stay in Crater Lake

We hold no live hotel rates for Crater Lake right now, so there is nothing honest to show here. Rates return as soon as the supplier does — the refresh state is on system status.

So, should you go?

Crater Lake scores 8.8 out of 10 and has exactly one genuinely clear day in the next 16. Dull days (8) still outnumber bright ones (1), so this is not a good week. There is some sun in this window, but not much. Compare it against the rest of the list before booking.

Frequently asked

Is it raining in Crater Lake this week?

No. The current 16-day forecast for Crater Lake shows no rain or storm days, peaking at 6% chance on the worst day. Cloud is not the dealbreaker here — rain is, and none is forecast.

How many clear days does Crater Lake have this week?

One. Crater Lake has exactly one genuinely clear day in the next 16.

Is Crater Lake good for a trip this week?

Marginal. Crater Lake scores 8.8/10, but dull days (8) still outnumber bright ones (1) this week.

Crater Lake by month — 8-year ERA5 history

Historical clear-sky percentages from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025). This is history, not a forecast — the 7-day forecast above is this week. They can and do differ.

Crater Lake: clear-sky % by month, ERA5 2018–2025. n = days sampled.
Month Historically clear Sample (n)
January 0% n=248 all destinations →
February 0% n=226 all destinations →
March 0% n=248 all destinations →
April 0% n=240 all destinations →
May 0% n=248 all destinations →
June 13% n=240 all destinations →
July 52% n=248 all destinations →
August 42% n=248 all destinations →
September 24% n=240 all destinations →
October 1% n=248 all destinations →
November 0% n=240 all destinations →
December 0% n=248 all destinations →

Each month links to the detailed almanac page for Crater Lake in that month. The “all destinations” column links to the full ranking across all destinations for that month.

Forecast data from Open-Meteo, last refreshed 2026-09-28T13:02:01.701596Z. Hotel names and rates come from LiteAPI and change constantly; the rate shown is the rate we held at refresh time, not a quote. Scores are forecasts, not guarantees, and the whole model is published on our methodology page.