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SunnyDays

California · MRY

Big Sur weather, next 16 days

Big Sur, California Just your ID

Big Sur scores 9.1 out of 10 and has 2 genuinely clear days out of 16. Dull days (13) still outnumber bright ones (3), so this is not a good run of weather.

9.1/10
Mostly dull
2 genuinely clear days, 1 partly cloudy, 5 overcast, 8 wet-sky, out of 16 forecast days. Rain is in the hourly forecast on 10 days (187h).
Bright days 3 vs dull days 13. Dull wins, so we do not call this a good forecast.
We are not showing a flattering tier word here. Why the score and the sky can disagree.

6-day run 8–13 Nov, zero rain · 2 clear, rain on 10 of 16 forecast days (187h) — The clouds are winning — 2 clear days out of 6 plus 1 partly cloudy, 83°F · 6-day run 8–13 Nov; rain on 10 of the other 10 days (187h)

The next 16 days in Big Sur

Every number below is the forecast we hold, rendered as text — nothing here is drawn on a canvas or filled in by JavaScript. The rain figure is the highest chance across all 16 days (67%), not the lowest, because the worst number is the useful one.

Booking window Sun 8 Nov–Fri 13 Nov: 9.1/10 for those days alone. The 16-day outlook score (9.1) covers the full table below and includes days outside that window.

Big Sur daily forecast, Sun 8 Nov to Mon 23 Nov (16 days total). Best single day scores 10.0; worst scores 4.0. A lone good day cannot carry the forecast.
Day High Low Rain chance Sky Day score
75°F 56°F 0% Clear clear 10.0
Clear skies, 75°F, zero drama.
73°F 62°F 0% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 73°F, dry as a bone.
83°F 63°F 0% Clear clear 10.0
Clear skies, 83°F, zero drama.
80°F 65°F 1% Partly cloudy partly 9.3
Partly cloudy, 80°F, not a drop of rain.
77°F 63°F 12% Overcast cloudy 8.4
Overcast, 77°F, dry as a bone.
77°F 60°F 16% Overcast cloudy 8.3
Overcast, 77°F, dry as a bone.
75°F 58°F 44% Overcast cloudy 7.2
Overcast, 75°F, light rain possible — but 6 hours of rain are in the forecast.
66°F 51°F 67% Rain showers wet 4.7
Rain showers, 66°F — it'll pass — but 16 hours of rain are in the forecast.
63°F 49°F 63% Light drizzle wet 4.5
Light drizzle, 63°F — it'll pass — but 16 hours of rain are in the forecast.
61°F 48°F 29% Overcast cloudy 6.5
Overcast, 61°F, light rain possible — rain overnight only (6 hours), dry while you're up.
57°F 51°F 42% Rain showers wet 4.5
Rain showers, 57°F — it'll pass — but 16 hours of rain are in the forecast.
60°F 51°F 42% Drizzle wet 5.0
Drizzle, 60°F — it'll pass — but 16 hours of rain are in the forecast.
60°F 56°F 36% Rain showers wet 5.2
Rain showers, 60°F — it'll pass — but 16 hours of rain are in the forecast.
64°F 54°F 29% Drizzle wet 6.0
Drizzle, 64°F — it'll pass — but 10 hours of rain are in the forecast.
63°F 57°F 28% Violent showers wet 4.0
Violent showers, 63°F — it'll pass — but 15 hours of rain are in the forecast.
62°F 56°F 25% Violent showers wet 4.0
Violent showers, 62°F — it'll pass — but 7 hours of rain are in the forecast.

How this forecast got its score

  • 6 forecast days: 2 clear/mainly clear, 1 partly cloudy, 3 overcast or foggy, 0 with a drizzle/rain/snow sky code, 0 stormy (sky codes; rain hours below).
  • Trimmed mean of day scores 9.1 × 0.55 = 4.98
  • Worst day drag: worst day is 8.3 × 0.25 = 2.08 - one bad day cannot be averaged away.
  • Longest consecutive run of good days (≥7.0) is 6/6 = 100% coverage × 0.20 = 2.00
  • Best single day is 10.0 but it only counts through the trimmed mean - a lone great day cannot carry the window.
  • Hourly forecast: no rain hours in any of the 6 days.
  • Whole 16-day forecast: 2 clear, 1 partly cloudy, 5 overcast or foggy, 8 with a rain sky code, 0 with a storm sky code; rain hours on 10 of them (187h).

The full model, including why a single great day cannot rescue a bad run, is on the methodology page.

Getting to Big Sur

The nearest airport we price is MRY. From New York City the fastest itinerary we have seen out of EWR takes 8h 17m (verified, Duffel), 1 stop. Then about 34m to drive from MRY (est. 22 mi — road model, not real routing). Total door-to-lounger: ~8h 51m (estimated: the drive is a road model). Flight times from 56 other departure metros are on the search page.

Where to stay in Big Sur

9 properties we currently hold live rates for, in supplier order. Each price is the total for the stay, taxes and mandatory fees included, as last returned for the window above — a held rate, not a quote, and it moves. A hotel whose total with taxes and fees we cannot confirm shows no price.

Hotels: best time to visit and prices by month

Hotels in Big Sur with enough price history for a month-by-month page: weather by half-month and the nightly rates our searches have observed.

  • Post Ranch Inn · 35 rates observed over 14 check-in months since 26 Sep 2026
  • Alila Ventana Big Sur · 32 rates observed over 11 check-in months since 26 Sep 2026
  • Big Sur Lodge · 32 rates observed over 6 check-in months since 26 Sep 2026

So, should you go?

Big Sur scores 9.1 out of 10 and has 2 genuinely clear days out of 16. Dull days (13) still outnumber bright ones (3), so this is not a good run of weather. There is some sun in this window, but not much. Compare it against the rest of the list before booking.

Frequently asked

Is it raining in Big Sur in the next 16 days?

Yes. 10 of the next 16 days in Big Sur have rain in the forecast (187 forecast rain hours), peaking at 67% chance on the worst day. The run we list, Sun 8 Nov to Fri 13 Nov, is the stretch that clears our rain bar.

How many clear days does Big Sur have in the next 16 days?

2. Big Sur has 2 genuinely clear days out of the next 16.

Is Big Sur good for a trip right now?

Marginal. Big Sur scores 9.1/10, but dull days (13) still outnumber bright ones (3) over the next 16 days.

Big Sur by month — 8-year ERA5 history

Historical clear-sky percentages from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025). This is history, not a forecast — the 16-day forecast above is what is actually coming. They can and do differ.

Big Sur: clear-sky % by month, ERA5 2018–2025. n = days sampled.
Month Historically clear Sample (n)
January 3% n=248 all destinations →
February 5% n=226 all destinations →
March 1% n=248 all destinations →
April 2% n=240 all destinations →
May 5% n=248 all destinations →
June 16% n=240 all destinations →
July 25% n=248 all destinations →
August 38% n=248 all destinations →
September 35% n=240 all destinations →
October 30% n=248 all destinations →
November 14% n=240 all destinations →
December 4% n=248 all destinations →

Each month links to the detailed almanac page for Big Sur in that month. The “all destinations” column links to the full ranking across all destinations for that month.

Forecast data from Open-Meteo, last refreshed 2026-11-08T18:01:12.302753Z. Hotel names and rates come from third-party supplier data and change constantly; the rate shown is the rate we held at refresh time, not a quote. Scores are forecasts, not guarantees, and the whole model is published on our methodology page.