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Florida · JAX

Amelia Island weather, next 16 days

Amelia Island, Florida Just your ID

Amelia Island scores 8.6 out of 10 and has 5 genuinely clear days out of 16. Dull days (11) still outnumber bright ones (5), so this is not a good run of weather.

8.6/10
Mostly dull
5 genuinely clear days, 0 partly cloudy, 7 overcast, 4 wet-sky, out of 16 forecast days. Rain is in the hourly forecast on 4 days (37h).
Bright days 5 vs dull days 11. Dull wins, so we do not call this a good forecast.
We are not showing a flattering tier word here. Why the score and the sky can disagree.

6-day run 16–21 Nov, 3.8% rain-affected · 5 clear, rain on 4 of 16 forecast days (37h) — The clouds are winning — 3 clear days out of 6, 2 wet days, 77°F · 6-day run 16–21 Nov; rain 20 Nov (3h), 21 Nov (7h); rain on 2 of the other 10 days: 22 Nov (11h), 23 Nov (16h)

The next 16 days in Amelia Island

Every number below is the forecast we hold, rendered as text — nothing here is drawn on a canvas or filled in by JavaScript. The rain figure is the highest chance across all 16 days (30%), not the lowest, because the worst number is the useful one.

Booking window Mon 16 Nov–Sat 21 Nov: 8.6/10 for those days alone. The 16-day outlook score (8.6) covers the full table below and includes days outside that window.

Amelia Island daily forecast, Sun 8 Nov to Mon 23 Nov (16 days total). Best single day scores 10.0; worst scores 6.6. A lone good day cannot carry the forecast.
Day High Low Rain chance Sky Day score
72°F 59°F 0% Fog cloudy 7.0
Fog, 72°F — not rain, just slow to lift.
73°F 58°F 0% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 73°F, dry as a bone.
79°F 55°F 0% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 79°F, dry as a bone.
77°F 63°F 4% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 77°F, dry as a bone.
78°F 62°F 8% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 78°F, dry as a bone.
67°F 45°F 8% Overcast cloudy 7.9
Overcast, 67°F, toasty with a lid on.
57°F 39°F 1% Clear clear 8.2
Clear skies, 57°F — pack a layer.
64°F 38°F 2% Clear clear 9.1
Clear skies, 64°F — pack a layer.
72°F 43°F 2% Clear clear 10.0
Clear skies, 72°F, zero drama.
76°F 49°F 3% Clear clear 10.0
Clear skies, 76°F, zero drama.
73°F 54°F 4% Clear clear 10.0
Clear skies, 73°F, zero drama.
74°F 64°F 19% Overcast cloudy 8.2
Overcast, 74°F, dry as a bone.
76°F 68°F 19% Light drizzle wet 7.0
Light drizzle, 76°F — it'll pass — but 3 hours of rain are in the forecast.
77°F 69°F 23% Light drizzle wet 7.0
Light drizzle, 77°F — it'll pass — but 1 hour of rain is in the forecast.
77°F 69°F 20% Rain showers wet 6.6
Rain showers, 77°F — it'll pass — but 9 hours of rain are in the forecast.
71°F 55°F 30% Light drizzle wet 7.0
Light drizzle, 71°F — it'll pass — but 13 hours of rain are in the forecast.

How this forecast got its score

  • 6 forecast days: 3 clear/mainly clear, 0 partly cloudy, 1 overcast or foggy, 2 with a drizzle/rain/snow sky code, 0 stormy (sky codes; rain hours below).
  • Trimmed mean of day scores 8.8 × 0.55 = 4.84
  • Worst day drag: worst day is 7.0 × 0.25 = 1.75 - one bad day cannot be averaged away.
  • Longest consecutive run of good days (≥7.0) is 6/6 = 100% coverage × 0.20 = 2.00
  • Best single day is 10.0 but it only counts through the trimmed mean - a lone great day cannot carry the window.
  • Hourly forecast: rain on 2 of 6 days (10h): 20 Nov (3h), 21 Nov (7h).
  • Whole 16-day forecast: 5 clear, 0 partly cloudy, 7 overcast or foggy, 4 with a rain sky code, 0 with a storm sky code; rain hours on 4 of them (37h).

The full model, including why a single great day cannot rescue a bad run, is on the methodology page.

Getting to Amelia Island

The nearest airport we price is JAX. From New York City the fastest itinerary we have seen out of EWR takes 3h 57m (verified, Duffel), 1 stop. Then about 29m to drive from JAX (est. 18 mi — road model, not real routing). Total door-to-lounger: ~4h 26m (estimated: the drive is a road model). Flight times from 56 other departure metros are on the search page.

Where to stay in Amelia Island

15 properties we currently hold live rates for, in supplier order. Each price is the total for the stay, taxes and mandatory fees included, as last returned for the window above — a held rate, not a quote, and it moves. A hotel whose total with taxes and fees we cannot confirm shows no price.

Hotels: best time to visit and prices by month

Hotels in Amelia Island with enough price history for a month-by-month page: weather by half-month and the nightly rates our searches have observed.

So, should you go?

Amelia Island scores 8.6 out of 10 and has 5 genuinely clear days out of 16. Dull days (11) still outnumber bright ones (5), so this is not a good run of weather. There is some sun in this window, but not much. Compare it against the rest of the list before booking.

Frequently asked

Is it raining in Amelia Island in the next 16 days?

Yes. 4 of the next 16 days in Amelia Island have rain in the forecast (37 forecast rain hours), peaking at 30% chance on the worst day. The run we list, Mon 16 Nov to Sat 21 Nov, is the stretch that clears our rain bar.

How many clear days does Amelia Island have in the next 16 days?

5. Amelia Island has 5 genuinely clear days out of the next 16.

Is Amelia Island good for a trip right now?

Marginal. Amelia Island scores 8.6/10, but dull days (11) still outnumber bright ones (5) over the next 16 days.

Amelia Island by month — 8-year ERA5 history

Historical clear-sky percentages from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025). This is history, not a forecast — the 16-day forecast above is what is actually coming. They can and do differ.

Amelia Island: clear-sky % by month, ERA5 2018–2025. n = days sampled.
Month Historically clear Sample (n)
January 7% n=248 all destinations →
February 22% n=226 all destinations →
March 25% n=248 all destinations →
April 46% n=240 all destinations →
May 38% n=248 all destinations →
June 18% n=240 all destinations →
July 10% n=248 all destinations →
August 9% n=248 all destinations →
September 22% n=240 all destinations →
October 34% n=248 all destinations →
November 20% n=240 all destinations →
December 12% n=248 all destinations →

Each month links to the detailed almanac page for Amelia Island in that month. The “all destinations” column links to the full ranking across all destinations for that month.

Forecast data from Open-Meteo, last refreshed 2026-11-08T15:01:21.268591Z. Hotel names and rates come from third-party supplier data and change constantly; the rate shown is the rate we held at refresh time, not a quote. Scores are forecasts, not guarantees, and the whole model is published on our methodology page.