ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data

Sarasota vs St. Barthélemy: weather in January

Essentially a tie in January: Sarasota is 17% clear historically, St. Barthélemy is 18% clear (8-year ERA5 average) — within the noise. Avg high 68°F vs 79°F. St. Barthélemy also sees measurably more rain than Sarasota this month (41% vs 24% of days). Pick based on flight time or price, not weather — the weather won't decide this one for you.

What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast. Either destination can still surprise you this specific January. For this week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.

Sarasota

Clear days, January: 17%
Sample size: n=248 days
Avg high: 68°F
Early January (1st–15th): 18%
Late January (16th–end): 17%
Rain frequency: 24% of days

St. Barthélemy

Clear days, January: 18%
Sample size: n=248 days
Avg high: 79°F
Early January (1st–15th): 20%
Late January (16th–end): 16%
Rain frequency: 41% of days

Compare Sarasota vs St. Barthélemy in another month

All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.