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SunnyDays

ERA5 almanac comparison — 8 years of real data

Nashville vs Oaxaca: weather in October

Essentially a tie in October: Nashville is 32% clear historically, Oaxaca is 28% clear (8-year ERA5 average) — within the noise. Avg high 73°F vs 77°F. Oaxaca also sees measurably more rain than Nashville this month (46% vs 31% of days). Pick based on flight time or price, not weather — the weather won't decide this one for you.

What you are reading: 8-year historical averages, not a forecast. Either destination can still surprise you this specific October. For this week’s actual forecast, each destination links to its live page below.

Nashville

TN

Clear days, October
32%
Sample size
n=248 days
Avg high
73°F
Early October (1st–15th)
43%
Late October (16th–end)
21%
Rain frequency
31% of days

Oaxaca

MX

Clear days, October
28%
Sample size
n=248 days
Avg high
77°F
Early October (1st–15th)
22%
Late October (16th–end)
34%
Rain frequency
46% of days

Compare Nashville vs Oaxaca in another month

All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.