JP · HND
Tokyo weather this week
Passport worthy
Tokyo scores 8.1 out of 10 and has no genuinely clear day in the next 16.
The model gives this week 8.1 out of 10 because it is warm and largely rain-free, and those are the two things the score measures. It is not measuring sunshine. With 0 genuinely clear days and 4 dull ones, expect grey skies. We are showing you the number and the contradiction rather than only the number.
4-day window, 1.0% rain-affected — Warm, dry, and the sun never shows — zero clear days in 4, one rainy day
The next 16 days in Tokyo
Every number below is the forecast we hold, rendered as text — nothing here is drawn on a canvas or filled in by JavaScript. The rain figure is the highest chance across all 16 days (100%), not the lowest, because the worst number is the useful one.
Booking window Sat 10 Oct–Tue 13 Oct: 8.1/10 for those days alone. The 16-day outlook score (8.1) covers the full table below and includes days outside that window.
| Day | High | Low | Rain chance | Sky | Day score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70°F | 65°F | 100% | Rain wet | 4.1 Rain, 70°F — it'll pass. |
|
| 73°F | 64°F | 100% | Light rain wet | 4.5 Light rain, 73°F — it'll pass. |
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| 79°F | 66°F | 14% | Drizzle cloudy | 6.2 Overcast, 79°F, dry as a bone. |
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| 74°F | 65°F | 33% | Light drizzle wet | 7.0 Light drizzle, 74°F — it'll pass. |
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| 72°F | 62°F | 18% | Overcast cloudy | 8.3 Overcast, 72°F, dry as a bone. |
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| 73°F | 59°F | 40% | Overcast cloudy | 7.4 Overcast, 73°F, light rain possible. |
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| 67°F | 62°F | 49% | Drizzle wet | 5.6 Drizzle, 67°F — it'll pass. |
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| 77°F | 64°F | 27% | Drizzle wet | 6.2 Drizzle, 77°F — it'll pass. |
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| 67°F | 61°F | 41% | Rain showers wet | 6.0 Rain showers, 67°F — it'll pass. |
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| 74°F | 61°F | 47% | Drizzle wet | 6.2 Drizzle, 74°F — it'll pass. |
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| 80°F | 67°F | 31% | Rain showers wet | 6.6 Rain showers, 80°F — it'll pass. |
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| 76°F | 62°F | 16% | Light drizzle wet | 7.0 Light drizzle, 76°F — it'll pass. |
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| 75°F | 62°F | 14% | Overcast cloudy | 8.4 Overcast, 75°F, dry as a bone. |
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| 73°F | 62°F | 20% | Overcast cloudy | 8.2 Overcast, 73°F, light rain possible. |
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| 75°F | 64°F | 19% | Overcast cloudy | 8.2 Overcast, 75°F, dry as a bone. |
|
| 80°F | 68°F | 29% | Overcast cloudy | 7.8 Overcast, 80°F, light rain possible. |
How this week got its score
- 4 forecast days: 0 clear/mainly clear, 0 partly cloudy, 3 overcast, 1 wet (fog/drizzle/rain/showers), 0 stormy.
- Trimmed mean of day scores 7.9 × 0.55 = 4.37
- Worst day drag: worst day is 7.0 × 0.25 = 1.75 - one bad day cannot be averaged away.
- Longest consecutive run of good days (≥7.0) is 4/4 = 100% coverage × 0.20 = 2.00
- Best single day is 8.4 but it only counts through the trimmed mean - a lone great day cannot carry the window.
The full model, including why a single great day cannot rescue a bad week, is on the methodology page.
Getting to Tokyo
The nearest airport we price is HND. From New York City that is about 13h 54m in the air out of SWF, 6697 miles. Then about 18m to drive from HND (est. 12 mi — road model, not real routing). Total door-to-lounger: 14h 12m. Flight times from 55 other departure metros are on the search page.
Where to stay in Tokyo
15 properties we currently hold live rates for, in supplier order. The nightly rate shown is what the supplier returned at the last refresh for the window above — it is a held rate, not a quote, and it moves.
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$177per night$531 total
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$289per night$866 total
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$125per night$374 total
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$158per night$474 total
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$154per night$463 total
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$226per night$677 total
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$145per night$436 total
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$399per night$1,198 total
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$94.87per night$285 total
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$444per night$1,333 total
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$314per night$942 total
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$110per night$329 total
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$240per night$721 total
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$364per night$1,091 total
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$129per night$388 total
So, should you go?
Tokyo scores 8.1 out of 10 and has no genuinely clear day in the next 16. If sunshine is the reason you are travelling, pick somewhere else this week — the full list is sorted by genuinely clear days, so the top of it is where to look.
Frequently asked
Is it raining in Tokyo this week?
Partly. 1 of the next 16 day in Tokyo are forecast wet or stormy, peaking at 100% chance on the worst day — the rest are dry, whatever the cloud cover.
How many clear days does Tokyo have this week?
Zero. Tokyo has no genuinely clear day in the next 16.
Is Tokyo good for a trip this week?
Not for the sun. Tokyo scores 8.1/10 this week, but that score measures warmth and dryness, not sunshine — there is no genuinely clear day in the forecast.
Tokyo by month — 8-year ERA5 history
Historical clear-sky percentages from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025). This is history, not a forecast — the 7-day forecast above is this week. They can and do differ.
| Month | Historically clear | Sample (n) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0% | n=248 | all destinations → |
| February | 0% | n=226 | all destinations → |
| March | 3% | n=248 | all destinations → |
| April | 12% | n=240 | all destinations → |
| May | 32% | n=248 | all destinations → |
| June | 27% | n=240 | all destinations → |
| July | 27% | n=248 | all destinations → |
| August | 29% | n=248 | all destinations → |
| September | 26% | n=240 | all destinations → |
| October | 21% | n=248 | all destinations → |
| November | 2% | n=240 | all destinations → |
| December | 0% | n=248 | all destinations → |
Each month links to the detailed almanac page for Tokyo in that month. The “all destinations” column links to the full ranking across all destinations for that month.
Forecast data from Open-Meteo, last refreshed 2026-09-29T02:06:58.524557Z. Hotel names and rates come from LiteAPI and change constantly; the rate shown is the rate we held at refresh time, not a quote. Scores are forecasts, not guarantees, and the whole model is published on our methodology page.